Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor

Climate change, population increase, and urban expansion have increased the risk of flooding. Therefore, accurately identifying future changing patterns in the flood risk is essential. For this purpose, this study elaborated a new framework for a basin scale that employs a future land-use simulation...

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Autores principales:	Jun Liu, Jiyan Wang, Junnan Xiong, Weiming Cheng, Xingjie Cui, Wen He, Yufeng He, Yu Duan, Gang Yang, Nan Wang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	dynamic flood risk assessment future land-use simulation scenario-based planning spatialization technology Markov chains ANN Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a0ffc429b0bc4e47ad09dd2df2fb2bed
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a0ffc429b0bc4e47ad09dd2df2fb2bed2021-11-25T19:15:52ZDynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor10.3390/w132232392073-4441https://doaj.org/article/a0ffc429b0bc4e47ad09dd2df2fb2bed2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/22/3239https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441Climate change, population increase, and urban expansion have increased the risk of flooding. Therefore, accurately identifying future changing patterns in the flood risk is essential. For this purpose, this study elaborated a new framework for a basin scale that employs a future land-use simulation model, a factor spatialization technique, and a novel hybrid model for scenario-based flood risk assessment in 2030 and 2050. Three land-use scenarios (i.e., natural growth scenario, cropland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario) were set and applied in Jinjiang Basin to explore the changes in future flood risk under these scenarios. The results indicate the different degrees of increase in flood risk that will occur in the three scenarios. Under the natural growth (NG) scenario, the city will expand rapidly with the growth of population and economy, and the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 371.30 km<sup>2</sup> by 2050, as compared to 2020. However, under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, woodlands will be protected, and the growth in population, economy, and built-up lands will slow down with slightly increased risk of flooding. In this scenario, the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 113.75 km<sup>2</sup> by 2050. Under the cropland protection (CP) scenario, the loss of croplands will have been effectively stopped, and the flood risk will not show a significant increase under this scenario, with an increase by only 90.96 km<sup>2</sup> by 2050, similar to the EP scenario. Spatially, these increased flood risks mainly locate at the periphery of existing built-up lands, and the high-flood-risk zones are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Jinjiang Basin. The information about increasing flood risk determined by the framework provides insight into the spatio-temporal characteristics of future flood-prone areas, which facilitates reasonable flood mitigation measures to be developed at the most critical locations in the region.Jun LiuJiyan WangJunnan XiongWeiming ChengXingjie CuiWen HeYufeng HeYu DuanGang YangNan WangMDPI AGarticledynamic flood risk assessmentfuture land-use simulationscenario-based planningspatialization technologyMarkov chainsANNHydraulic engineeringTC1-978Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENWater, Vol 13, Iss 3239, p 3239 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	dynamic flood risk assessment future land-use simulation scenario-based planning spatialization technology Markov chains ANN Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	dynamic flood risk assessment future land-use simulation scenario-based planning spatialization technology Markov chains ANN Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Jun Liu Jiyan Wang Junnan Xiong Weiming Cheng Xingjie Cui Wen He Yufeng He Yu Duan Gang Yang Nan Wang Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor
description	Climate change, population increase, and urban expansion have increased the risk of flooding. Therefore, accurately identifying future changing patterns in the flood risk is essential. For this purpose, this study elaborated a new framework for a basin scale that employs a future land-use simulation model, a factor spatialization technique, and a novel hybrid model for scenario-based flood risk assessment in 2030 and 2050. Three land-use scenarios (i.e., natural growth scenario, cropland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario) were set and applied in Jinjiang Basin to explore the changes in future flood risk under these scenarios. The results indicate the different degrees of increase in flood risk that will occur in the three scenarios. Under the natural growth (NG) scenario, the city will expand rapidly with the growth of population and economy, and the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 371.30 km<sup>2</sup> by 2050, as compared to 2020. However, under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, woodlands will be protected, and the growth in population, economy, and built-up lands will slow down with slightly increased risk of flooding. In this scenario, the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 113.75 km<sup>2</sup> by 2050. Under the cropland protection (CP) scenario, the loss of croplands will have been effectively stopped, and the flood risk will not show a significant increase under this scenario, with an increase by only 90.96 km<sup>2</sup> by 2050, similar to the EP scenario. Spatially, these increased flood risks mainly locate at the periphery of existing built-up lands, and the high-flood-risk zones are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Jinjiang Basin. The information about increasing flood risk determined by the framework provides insight into the spatio-temporal characteristics of future flood-prone areas, which facilitates reasonable flood mitigation measures to be developed at the most critical locations in the region.
format	article
author	Jun Liu Jiyan Wang Junnan Xiong Weiming Cheng Xingjie Cui Wen He Yufeng He Yu Duan Gang Yang Nan Wang
author_facet	Jun Liu Jiyan Wang Junnan Xiong Weiming Cheng Xingjie Cui Wen He Yufeng He Yu Duan Gang Yang Nan Wang
author_sort	Jun Liu
title	Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor
title_short	Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor
title_full	Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor
title_fullStr	Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor
title_full_unstemmed	Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor
title_sort	dynamic assessment of the flood risk at basin scale under simulation of land-use scenarios and spatialization technology of factor
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a0ffc429b0bc4e47ad09dd2df2fb2bed
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Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor

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