A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds

This paper proposes a fuzzy number—based framework for quantifying and propagating uncertainties through a model for the trajectories of objects drifting at the ocean surface. Various sources of uncertainty that should be considered are discussed. This model is used to explore the effect of paramete...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Hauke Blanken, Caterina Valeo, Charles Hannah, Usman T. Khan, Tamás Juhász
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	ocean surface drift uncertainty fuzzy shear Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a20a40a7eda44e02b24d43f13871bfd8
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:a20a40a7eda44e02b24d43f13871bfd8
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a20a40a7eda44e02b24d43f13871bfd82021-11-15T05:41:28ZA Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds2296-774510.3389/fmars.2021.618094https://doaj.org/article/a20a40a7eda44e02b24d43f13871bfd82021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.618094/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745This paper proposes a fuzzy number—based framework for quantifying and propagating uncertainties through a model for the trajectories of objects drifting at the ocean surface. Various sources of uncertainty that should be considered are discussed. This model is used to explore the effect of parameterizing direct wind drag on the drifting object based on its geometry, and using measured winds to parameterize shear and rotational dynamics in the ocean surface currents along with wave-driven circulation and near-surface wind shear. Parameterizations are formulated in a deterministic manner that avoids the commonly required specification of empirical leeway coefficients. Observations of ocean currents and winds at Ocean Station Papa in the northeast Pacific are used to force the trajectory model in order to focus on uncertainties arising from physical processes, rather than uncertainties introduced by the use of atmospheric and hydrodynamic models. Computed trajectories are compared against observed trajectories from five different types of surface drifters, and optimal combinations of forcing parameterizations are identified for each type of drifter. The model performance is assessed using a novel skill metric that combines traditional assessment of trajectory accuracy with penalties for overestimation of uncertainty. Comparison to the more commonly used leeway method shows similar performance, without requiring the specification of empirical coefficients. When using optimal parameterizations, the model is shown to correctly identify the area in which drifters are expected to be found for the duration of a seven day simulation.Hauke BlankenHauke BlankenCaterina ValeoCharles HannahUsman T. KhanTamás JuhászFrontiers Media S.A.articleoceansurfacedriftuncertaintyfuzzyshearScienceQGeneral. Including nature conservation, geographical distributionQH1-199.5ENFrontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	ocean surface drift uncertainty fuzzy shear Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
spellingShingle	ocean surface drift uncertainty fuzzy shear Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Hauke Blanken Hauke Blanken Caterina Valeo Charles Hannah Usman T. Khan Tamás Juhász A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds
description	This paper proposes a fuzzy number—based framework for quantifying and propagating uncertainties through a model for the trajectories of objects drifting at the ocean surface. Various sources of uncertainty that should be considered are discussed. This model is used to explore the effect of parameterizing direct wind drag on the drifting object based on its geometry, and using measured winds to parameterize shear and rotational dynamics in the ocean surface currents along with wave-driven circulation and near-surface wind shear. Parameterizations are formulated in a deterministic manner that avoids the commonly required specification of empirical leeway coefficients. Observations of ocean currents and winds at Ocean Station Papa in the northeast Pacific are used to force the trajectory model in order to focus on uncertainties arising from physical processes, rather than uncertainties introduced by the use of atmospheric and hydrodynamic models. Computed trajectories are compared against observed trajectories from five different types of surface drifters, and optimal combinations of forcing parameterizations are identified for each type of drifter. The model performance is assessed using a novel skill metric that combines traditional assessment of trajectory accuracy with penalties for overestimation of uncertainty. Comparison to the more commonly used leeway method shows similar performance, without requiring the specification of empirical coefficients. When using optimal parameterizations, the model is shown to correctly identify the area in which drifters are expected to be found for the duration of a seven day simulation.
format	article
author	Hauke Blanken Hauke Blanken Caterina Valeo Charles Hannah Usman T. Khan Tamás Juhász
author_facet	Hauke Blanken Hauke Blanken Caterina Valeo Charles Hannah Usman T. Khan Tamás Juhász
author_sort	Hauke Blanken
title	A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds
title_short	A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds
title_full	A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds
title_fullStr	A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds
title_full_unstemmed	A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds
title_sort	fuzzy-based framework for assessing uncertainty in drift prediction using observed currents and winds
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a20a40a7eda44e02b24d43f13871bfd8
work_keys_str_mv	AT haukeblanken afuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT haukeblanken afuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT caterinavaleo afuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT charleshannah afuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT usmantkhan afuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT tamasjuhasz afuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT haukeblanken fuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT haukeblanken fuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT caterinavaleo fuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT charleshannah fuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT usmantkhan fuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds AT tamasjuhasz fuzzybasedframeworkforassessinguncertaintyindriftpredictionusingobservedcurrentsandwinds
_version_	1718428572148826112

A Fuzzy-Based Framework for Assessing Uncertainty in Drift Prediction Using Observed Currents and Winds

Ejemplares similares