The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait
Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the imp...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:a217df5a6b434ecd8a1fa54a08399d662021-11-22T05:23:07ZThe Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait2296-256510.3389/fpubh.2021.757419https://doaj.org/article/a217df5a6b434ecd8a1fa54a08399d662021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.757419/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-2565Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden.Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers.Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness.Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning.Abdullah A. Al-ShammariAbdullah A. Al-ShammariHamad AliHamad AliBarrak AlahmadFaisal H. Al-RefaeiSalman Al-SabahSalman Al-SabahMohammad H. JamalMohammad H. JamalAbdullah AlshukryQais Al-DuwairiFahd Al-MullaFrontiers Media S.A.articleCOVID-19public healthmathematical modelingforecastinghealthcare demandepidemic outbreakPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENFrontiers in Public Health, Vol 9 (2021) |
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COVID-19 public health mathematical modeling forecasting healthcare demand epidemic outbreak Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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COVID-19 public health mathematical modeling forecasting healthcare demand epidemic outbreak Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Abdullah A. Al-Shammari Abdullah A. Al-Shammari Hamad Ali Hamad Ali Barrak Alahmad Faisal H. Al-Refaei Salman Al-Sabah Salman Al-Sabah Mohammad H. Jamal Mohammad H. Jamal Abdullah Alshukry Qais Al-Duwairi Fahd Al-Mulla The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
| description |
Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden.Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers.Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness.Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari Abdullah A. Al-Shammari Hamad Ali Hamad Ali Barrak Alahmad Faisal H. Al-Refaei Salman Al-Sabah Salman Al-Sabah Mohammad H. Jamal Mohammad H. Jamal Abdullah Alshukry Qais Al-Duwairi Fahd Al-Mulla |
| author_facet |
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari Abdullah A. Al-Shammari Hamad Ali Hamad Ali Barrak Alahmad Faisal H. Al-Refaei Salman Al-Sabah Salman Al-Sabah Mohammad H. Jamal Mohammad H. Jamal Abdullah Alshukry Qais Al-Duwairi Fahd Al-Mulla |
| author_sort |
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari |
| title |
The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
| title_short |
The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
| title_full |
The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
| title_fullStr |
The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
| title_sort |
impact of strict public health measures on covid-19 transmission in developing countries: the case of kuwait |
| publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/a217df5a6b434ecd8a1fa54a08399d66 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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