Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa

Abstract We applied the process-based model, LandscapeDNDC, to estimate feed availability in the Sahelian and Sudanian agro-ecological zones of West Africa as a basis for calculating the regional Livestock Carrying Capacity (LCC). Comparison of the energy supply (S) from feed resources, including na...

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Autores principales:	Jaber Rahimi, Edwin Haas, Rüdiger Grote, David Kraus, Andrew Smerald, Patrick Laux, John Goopy, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a2207dd4bd464bde8d1311dee608c39c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a2207dd4bd464bde8d1311dee608c39c2021-11-14T12:18:25ZBeyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa10.1038/s41598-021-01706-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a2207dd4bd464bde8d1311dee608c39c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01706-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We applied the process-based model, LandscapeDNDC, to estimate feed availability in the Sahelian and Sudanian agro-ecological zones of West Africa as a basis for calculating the regional Livestock Carrying Capacity (LCC). Comparison of the energy supply (S) from feed resources, including natural pasture, browse, and crop residues, with energy demand (D) of the livestock population for the period 1981–2020 allowed us to assess regional surpluses (S > D) or deficits (S < D) in feed availability. We show that in the last 40 years a large-scale shift from surplus to deficit has occurred. While during 1981–1990 only 27% of the area exceeded the LCC, it was 72% for the period 2011–2020. This was caused by a reduction in the total feed supply of ~ 8% and an increase in feed demand of ~ 37% per-decade, driven by climate change and increased livestock population, respectively. Overall, the S/D decreased from ~ 2.6 (surplus) in 1981 to ~ 0.5 (deficit) in 2019, with a north–south gradient of increasing S/D. As climate change continues and feed availability may likely further shrink, pastoralists either need to source external feed or significantly reduce livestock numbers to avoid overgrazing, land degradation, and any further conflicts for resources.Jaber RahimiEdwin HaasRüdiger GroteDavid KrausAndrew SmeraldPatrick LauxJohn GoopyKlaus Butterbach-BahlNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jaber Rahimi Edwin Haas Rüdiger Grote David Kraus Andrew Smerald Patrick Laux John Goopy Klaus Butterbach-Bahl Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa
description	Abstract We applied the process-based model, LandscapeDNDC, to estimate feed availability in the Sahelian and Sudanian agro-ecological zones of West Africa as a basis for calculating the regional Livestock Carrying Capacity (LCC). Comparison of the energy supply (S) from feed resources, including natural pasture, browse, and crop residues, with energy demand (D) of the livestock population for the period 1981–2020 allowed us to assess regional surpluses (S > D) or deficits (S < D) in feed availability. We show that in the last 40 years a large-scale shift from surplus to deficit has occurred. While during 1981–1990 only 27% of the area exceeded the LCC, it was 72% for the period 2011–2020. This was caused by a reduction in the total feed supply of ~ 8% and an increase in feed demand of ~ 37% per-decade, driven by climate change and increased livestock population, respectively. Overall, the S/D decreased from ~ 2.6 (surplus) in 1981 to ~ 0.5 (deficit) in 2019, with a north–south gradient of increasing S/D. As climate change continues and feed availability may likely further shrink, pastoralists either need to source external feed or significantly reduce livestock numbers to avoid overgrazing, land degradation, and any further conflicts for resources.
format	article
author	Jaber Rahimi Edwin Haas Rüdiger Grote David Kraus Andrew Smerald Patrick Laux John Goopy Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
author_facet	Jaber Rahimi Edwin Haas Rüdiger Grote David Kraus Andrew Smerald Patrick Laux John Goopy Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
author_sort	Jaber Rahimi
title	Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa
title_short	Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa
title_full	Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa
title_fullStr	Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa
title_full_unstemmed	Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa
title_sort	beyond livestock carrying capacity in the sahelian and sudanian zones of west africa
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a2207dd4bd464bde8d1311dee608c39c
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Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa

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