Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics

Pakistan is amongst the most water-stressed countries in the world, with changes in the frequency of extreme events, notably droughts, under climate change expected to further increase water scarcity. This study examines the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the runoff of the...

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Autores principales:	Muhammad Saifullah, Muhammad Adnan, Muhammad Zaman, Andrzej Wałęga, Shiyin Liu, Muhammad Imran Khan, Alexandre S. Gagnon, Sher Muhammad
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate change Kunhar River Basin streamflow trend analysis Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) anthropogenic impacts Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a30bea246cdc4d1dba60a0a6d1d274d9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a30bea246cdc4d1dba60a0a6d1d274d92021-11-25T19:14:56ZHydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics10.3390/w132231632073-4441https://doaj.org/article/a30bea246cdc4d1dba60a0a6d1d274d92021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/22/3163https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441Pakistan is amongst the most water-stressed countries in the world, with changes in the frequency of extreme events, notably droughts, under climate change expected to further increase water scarcity. This study examines the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the runoff of the Kunhar River Basin (KRB) in Pakistan. The Mann Kendall (MK) test detected statistically significant increasing trends in both precipitation and evapotranspiration during the period 1971–2010 over the basin, but with the lack of a statistically significant trend in runoff over the same time-period. Then, a change-point analysis identified changes in the temporal behavior of the annual runoff time series in 1996. Hence, the time series was divided into two time periods, i.e., prior to and after that change: 1971–1996 and 1997–2010, respectively. For the time-period prior to the change point, the analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation, which is also reflected in the runoff time series, and a decreasing trend in evapotranspiration, albeit lacking statistical significance, was observed. After 1996, however, increasing trends in precipitation and runoff were detected, but the former lacked statistical significance, while no trend in evapotranspiration was noted. Through a hydrological modelling approach reconstructing the natural runoff of the KRB, a 16.1 m<sup>3</sup>/s (or 15.3%) reduction in the mean flow in the KRB was simulated for the period 1997–2010 in comparison to the period 1971–1996. The trend analyses and modeling study suggest the importance of anthropogenic activities on the variability of runoff over KRB since 1996. The changes in streamflow caused by irrigation, urbanization, and recreational activities, in addition to climate change, have influenced the regional water resources, and there is consequently an urgent need to adapt existing practices for the water requirements of the domestic, agricultural and energy sector to continue being met in the future.Muhammad SaifullahMuhammad AdnanMuhammad ZamanAndrzej WałęgaShiyin LiuMuhammad Imran KhanAlexandre S. GagnonSher MuhammadMDPI AGarticleclimate changeKunhar River Basinstreamflowtrend analysisSoil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)anthropogenic impactsHydraulic engineeringTC1-978Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENWater, Vol 13, Iss 3163, p 3163 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change Kunhar River Basin streamflow trend analysis Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) anthropogenic impacts Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	climate change Kunhar River Basin streamflow trend analysis Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) anthropogenic impacts Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Muhammad Saifullah Muhammad Adnan Muhammad Zaman Andrzej Wałęga Shiyin Liu Muhammad Imran Khan Alexandre S. Gagnon Sher Muhammad Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics
description	Pakistan is amongst the most water-stressed countries in the world, with changes in the frequency of extreme events, notably droughts, under climate change expected to further increase water scarcity. This study examines the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the runoff of the Kunhar River Basin (KRB) in Pakistan. The Mann Kendall (MK) test detected statistically significant increasing trends in both precipitation and evapotranspiration during the period 1971–2010 over the basin, but with the lack of a statistically significant trend in runoff over the same time-period. Then, a change-point analysis identified changes in the temporal behavior of the annual runoff time series in 1996. Hence, the time series was divided into two time periods, i.e., prior to and after that change: 1971–1996 and 1997–2010, respectively. For the time-period prior to the change point, the analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation, which is also reflected in the runoff time series, and a decreasing trend in evapotranspiration, albeit lacking statistical significance, was observed. After 1996, however, increasing trends in precipitation and runoff were detected, but the former lacked statistical significance, while no trend in evapotranspiration was noted. Through a hydrological modelling approach reconstructing the natural runoff of the KRB, a 16.1 m<sup>3</sup>/s (or 15.3%) reduction in the mean flow in the KRB was simulated for the period 1997–2010 in comparison to the period 1971–1996. The trend analyses and modeling study suggest the importance of anthropogenic activities on the variability of runoff over KRB since 1996. The changes in streamflow caused by irrigation, urbanization, and recreational activities, in addition to climate change, have influenced the regional water resources, and there is consequently an urgent need to adapt existing practices for the water requirements of the domestic, agricultural and energy sector to continue being met in the future.
format	article
author	Muhammad Saifullah Muhammad Adnan Muhammad Zaman Andrzej Wałęga Shiyin Liu Muhammad Imran Khan Alexandre S. Gagnon Sher Muhammad
author_facet	Muhammad Saifullah Muhammad Adnan Muhammad Zaman Andrzej Wałęga Shiyin Liu Muhammad Imran Khan Alexandre S. Gagnon Sher Muhammad
author_sort	Muhammad Saifullah
title	Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics
title_short	Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics
title_full	Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics
title_fullStr	Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics
title_full_unstemmed	Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics
title_sort	hydrological response of the kunhar river basin in pakistan to climate change and anthropogenic impacts on runoff characteristics
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a30bea246cdc4d1dba60a0a6d1d274d9
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Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics

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