The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action

Abstract Climate change will drive major perturbations of the West African summer monsoon. A zonal contrast in precipitation will develop at the end of the century, with an increase in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel. Such a zonal contrast...

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Autores principales:	Paul-Arthur Monerie, Benjamin Pohl, Marco Gaetani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a31bb69e7a44452d9268ce8af5b03c24
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a31bb69e7a44452d9268ce8af5b03c242021-12-02T18:15:44ZThe fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action10.1038/s41612-021-00179-62397-3722https://doaj.org/article/a31bb69e7a44452d9268ce8af5b03c242021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00179-6https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Climate change will drive major perturbations of the West African summer monsoon. A zonal contrast in precipitation will develop at the end of the century, with an increase in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel. Such a zonal contrast results from the antagonist effects of the fast (due to enhanced radiative warming over land, and over the North Hemisphere, relative to the South Hemisphere) and slow (associated with long-term changes in oceanic circulation) responses of precipitation to increasing greenhouse gases. While such changes have already been assessed, less attention has been given to their temporality, an issue of major importance to promote efficient mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we analyse the future evolution of precipitation changes decomposed into a fast and a slow response, showing that the fast response dominates the slow one. From this evidence, we highlight that mitigation strategies may be successful at reducing the effect of climate change on Sahel precipitation within a few decades, by muting the fast response. This decomposition also allows for a better understanding of the uncertainty of climate model predictions in Africa.Paul-Arthur MonerieBenjamin PohlMarco GaetaniNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Paul-Arthur Monerie Benjamin Pohl Marco Gaetani The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action
description	Abstract Climate change will drive major perturbations of the West African summer monsoon. A zonal contrast in precipitation will develop at the end of the century, with an increase in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel. Such a zonal contrast results from the antagonist effects of the fast (due to enhanced radiative warming over land, and over the North Hemisphere, relative to the South Hemisphere) and slow (associated with long-term changes in oceanic circulation) responses of precipitation to increasing greenhouse gases. While such changes have already been assessed, less attention has been given to their temporality, an issue of major importance to promote efficient mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we analyse the future evolution of precipitation changes decomposed into a fast and a slow response, showing that the fast response dominates the slow one. From this evidence, we highlight that mitigation strategies may be successful at reducing the effect of climate change on Sahel precipitation within a few decades, by muting the fast response. This decomposition also allows for a better understanding of the uncertainty of climate model predictions in Africa.
format	article
author	Paul-Arthur Monerie Benjamin Pohl Marco Gaetani
author_facet	Paul-Arthur Monerie Benjamin Pohl Marco Gaetani
author_sort	Paul-Arthur Monerie
title	The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action
title_short	The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action
title_full	The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action
title_fullStr	The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action
title_full_unstemmed	The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action
title_sort	fast response of sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a31bb69e7a44452d9268ce8af5b03c24
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The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action

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