Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic led authorities all over the world to imposing travel restrictions both on a national and on an international scale. Understanding the effect of such restrictions requires analysis of the role of commuting and calls for a metapopulation modeling that incorporates both...

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Autores principales:	Azi Lipshtat, Roger Alimi, Yochai Ben-Horin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a336ccf1131e4db1955515a60df8b9c0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a336ccf1131e4db1955515a60df8b9c02021-12-02T16:24:52ZCommuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling10.1038/s41598-021-94672-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a336ccf1131e4db1955515a60df8b9c02021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94672-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic led authorities all over the world to imposing travel restrictions both on a national and on an international scale. Understanding the effect of such restrictions requires analysis of the role of commuting and calls for a metapopulation modeling that incorporates both local, intra-community infection and population exchange between different locations. Standard metapopulation models are formulated as markovian processes, and as such they do not label individuals according to their original location. However, commuting from home to work and backwards (reverse commuting) is the main pattern of transportation. Thus, it is important to be able to accurately model the effect of commuting on epidemic spreading. In this study we develop a methodology for modeling bidirectional commuting of individuals, without keeping track of each individual separately and with no need of proliferation of number of compartments beyond those defined by the epidemiologic model. We demonstrate the method using a city map of the state of Israel. The presented algorithm does not require any special computation resources and it may serve as a basis for intervention strategy examination in various levels of complication and resolution. We show how to incorporate an epidemiological model into a metapopulation commuting scheme while preserving the internal logic of the epidemiological modeling. The method is general and independent on the details of the epidemiological model under consideration.Azi LipshtatRoger AlimiYochai Ben-HorinNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Azi Lipshtat Roger Alimi Yochai Ben-Horin Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling
description	Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic led authorities all over the world to imposing travel restrictions both on a national and on an international scale. Understanding the effect of such restrictions requires analysis of the role of commuting and calls for a metapopulation modeling that incorporates both local, intra-community infection and population exchange between different locations. Standard metapopulation models are formulated as markovian processes, and as such they do not label individuals according to their original location. However, commuting from home to work and backwards (reverse commuting) is the main pattern of transportation. Thus, it is important to be able to accurately model the effect of commuting on epidemic spreading. In this study we develop a methodology for modeling bidirectional commuting of individuals, without keeping track of each individual separately and with no need of proliferation of number of compartments beyond those defined by the epidemiologic model. We demonstrate the method using a city map of the state of Israel. The presented algorithm does not require any special computation resources and it may serve as a basis for intervention strategy examination in various levels of complication and resolution. We show how to incorporate an epidemiological model into a metapopulation commuting scheme while preserving the internal logic of the epidemiological modeling. The method is general and independent on the details of the epidemiological model under consideration.
format	article
author	Azi Lipshtat Roger Alimi Yochai Ben-Horin
author_facet	Azi Lipshtat Roger Alimi Yochai Ben-Horin
author_sort	Azi Lipshtat
title	Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling
title_short	Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling
title_full	Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling
title_fullStr	Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling
title_full_unstemmed	Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling
title_sort	commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a336ccf1131e4db1955515a60df8b9c0
work_keys_str_mv	AT azilipshtat commutinginmetapopulationepidemicmodeling AT rogeralimi commutinginmetapopulationepidemicmodeling AT yochaibenhorin commutinginmetapopulationepidemicmodeling
_version_	1718384127408865280

Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling

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