Economic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization
Increasing economic integration and global synchronization can be key for countries aiming to catch up in GDP per capita terms. Little attention has hitherto been placed in synchronization as determinant of convergence. In this paper we estimate the effect of economic globalization and synchronizati...
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2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:a3ebccd9af474923ab17564d797ffb9d2021-11-04T06:07:17ZEconomic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/a3ebccd9af474923ab17564d797ffb9d2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8530313/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Increasing economic integration and global synchronization can be key for countries aiming to catch up in GDP per capita terms. Little attention has hitherto been placed in synchronization as determinant of convergence. In this paper we estimate the effect of economic globalization and synchronization on income convergence for a sample of 89 developed and developing countries in the period 1970–2015. We use a dynamic factor model and panel data techniques to undertake the objectives of the paper. We show that synchronized countries (those correlated with the factor) exhibit a higher response on GDP per capita growth with variations on the global business cycle. This implies that synchronization improves growth for that group in global expansionary phases, but also implies risks during global recessions. On the contrary, the effect on growth of an economic globalization index is less relevant for synchronized countries than for asynchronized countries. The latter result implies that asynchronized countries can benefit more increasing their levels of economic globalization.Andres LopezSonia De LucasMaria Jesus DelgadoPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 10 (2021) |
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Medicine R Science Q Andres Lopez Sonia De Lucas Maria Jesus Delgado Economic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization |
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Increasing economic integration and global synchronization can be key for countries aiming to catch up in GDP per capita terms. Little attention has hitherto been placed in synchronization as determinant of convergence. In this paper we estimate the effect of economic globalization and synchronization on income convergence for a sample of 89 developed and developing countries in the period 1970–2015. We use a dynamic factor model and panel data techniques to undertake the objectives of the paper. We show that synchronized countries (those correlated with the factor) exhibit a higher response on GDP per capita growth with variations on the global business cycle. This implies that synchronization improves growth for that group in global expansionary phases, but also implies risks during global recessions. On the contrary, the effect on growth of an economic globalization index is less relevant for synchronized countries than for asynchronized countries. The latter result implies that asynchronized countries can benefit more increasing their levels of economic globalization. |
format |
article |
author |
Andres Lopez Sonia De Lucas Maria Jesus Delgado |
author_facet |
Andres Lopez Sonia De Lucas Maria Jesus Delgado |
author_sort |
Andres Lopez |
title |
Economic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization |
title_short |
Economic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization |
title_full |
Economic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization |
title_fullStr |
Economic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization |
title_full_unstemmed |
Economic convergence in a globalized world: The role of business cycle synchronization |
title_sort |
economic convergence in a globalized world: the role of business cycle synchronization |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/a3ebccd9af474923ab17564d797ffb9d |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT andreslopez economicconvergenceinaglobalizedworldtheroleofbusinesscyclesynchronization AT soniadelucas economicconvergenceinaglobalizedworldtheroleofbusinesscyclesynchronization AT mariajesusdelgado economicconvergenceinaglobalizedworldtheroleofbusinesscyclesynchronization |
_version_ |
1718445167313158144 |