Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study

Yunxiao Liu, Hao Zhang, Mingyu Zheng, Chunlin Wang, Zhiqiao Hu, Yang Wang, Huan Xiong, BoYang Fan, Yuliuming Wang, Hanqing Hu, Qingchao Tang, Guiyu Wang Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Gu...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Liu Y, Zhang H, Zheng M, Wang C, Hu Z, Wang Y, Xiong H, Fan B, Hu H, Tang Q, Wang G
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Dove Medical Press 2021
Materias:	t1n0 colon cancer distant metastasis nomogram seer Medicine (General) R5-920
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a409742e4dda4dccaf7cc9d8d7ad1a62
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:a409742e4dda4dccaf7cc9d8d7ad1a62
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a409742e4dda4dccaf7cc9d8d7ad1a622021-11-30T18:50:36ZNomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study1178-7074https://doaj.org/article/a409742e4dda4dccaf7cc9d8d7ad1a622021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.dovepress.com/nomogram-to-predict-the-occurrence-and-prognosis-of-distant-metastasis-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGMhttps://doaj.org/toc/1178-7074Yunxiao Liu, Hao Zhang, Mingyu Zheng, Chunlin Wang, Zhiqiao Hu, Yang Wang, Huan Xiong, BoYang Fan, Yuliuming Wang, Hanqing Hu, Qingchao Tang, Guiyu Wang Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Guiyu WangDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86-451-86296599Email guiywang@163.comPurpose: Distant metastasis (DM) is relatively rare in T1 colon cancer (CC) patients, especially in those with negative lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to explore the main clinical factors and build nomogram for predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 colon cancer patients.Methods: Patients with T1N0 stage CC were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. All patients were divided into development and validation cohorts with the 3:1 ratio. Logistic regressions were performed to analyze the clinical risk factors for DM. Cox regression model was used to identify potential prognostic factors for patients with DM. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Based on cancer-specific survival (CSS), Kaplan–Meier curves were generated and analyzed using Log rank tests.Results: A total of 6770 patients were enrolled in this study, including 428 patients (6.3%) with DM. Age, size, grade, CEA were independent risk factors associated with DM. Age, grade, CEA, surgery and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for CSS. Nomograms were applied and C-index, calibration curves, ROC curves and DCA curves proved good discrimination, calibration and clinical practicability of the nomogram in predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients. In the DM nomogram, the AUCs for development and validation cohort were 0.901 (95% CI = 0.879– 0.922) and 0.899 (95% CI=0.865– 0.940), respectively. The calibration curves (development cohort: S: p = 0.712; validation cohort: S: p = 0.681) showed the relatively satisfactory prediction accuracy. Similarly, the AUCs of the nomogram at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 0.763 (95% CI=0.744– 0.782), 0.794 (95% CI=0.775– 0.813), and 0.822 (95% CI=0.803– 0.841) for the development cohort, and 0.785 (95% CI=0.754– 0.816), 0.748 (95% CI=0.717– 0.779) and 0.896 (95% CI=0.865– 0.927) for the validation cohort in the CSS nomogram. The C-indices of the development and validation cohort were 0.718 (95% CI=0.639– 0.737) and 0.712 (95% CI=0.681– 0.743).Conclusion: The population-based nomogram could help clinicians predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients and provide a reference to perform appropriate metastatic screening plans and rational therapeutic options for the special population.Keywords: T1N0 colon cancer, distant metastasis, nomogram, SEERLiu YZhang HZheng MWang CHu ZWang YXiong HFan BWang YHu HTang QWang GDove Medical Pressarticlet1n0 colon cancerdistant metastasisnomogramseerMedicine (General)R5-920ENInternational Journal of General Medicine, Vol Volume 14, Pp 9131-9143 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	t1n0 colon cancer distant metastasis nomogram seer Medicine (General) R5-920
spellingShingle	t1n0 colon cancer distant metastasis nomogram seer Medicine (General) R5-920 Liu Y Zhang H Zheng M Wang C Hu Z Wang Y Xiong H Fan B Wang Y Hu H Tang Q Wang G Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study
description	Yunxiao Liu, Hao Zhang, Mingyu Zheng, Chunlin Wang, Zhiqiao Hu, Yang Wang, Huan Xiong, BoYang Fan, Yuliuming Wang, Hanqing Hu, Qingchao Tang, Guiyu Wang Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Guiyu WangDepartment of Colorectal Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86-451-86296599Email guiywang@163.comPurpose: Distant metastasis (DM) is relatively rare in T1 colon cancer (CC) patients, especially in those with negative lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to explore the main clinical factors and build nomogram for predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 colon cancer patients.Methods: Patients with T1N0 stage CC were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. All patients were divided into development and validation cohorts with the 3:1 ratio. Logistic regressions were performed to analyze the clinical risk factors for DM. Cox regression model was used to identify potential prognostic factors for patients with DM. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Based on cancer-specific survival (CSS), Kaplan–Meier curves were generated and analyzed using Log rank tests.Results: A total of 6770 patients were enrolled in this study, including 428 patients (6.3%) with DM. Age, size, grade, CEA were independent risk factors associated with DM. Age, grade, CEA, surgery and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for CSS. Nomograms were applied and C-index, calibration curves, ROC curves and DCA curves proved good discrimination, calibration and clinical practicability of the nomogram in predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients. In the DM nomogram, the AUCs for development and validation cohort were 0.901 (95% CI = 0.879– 0.922) and 0.899 (95% CI=0.865– 0.940), respectively. The calibration curves (development cohort: S: p = 0.712; validation cohort: S: p = 0.681) showed the relatively satisfactory prediction accuracy. Similarly, the AUCs of the nomogram at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 0.763 (95% CI=0.744– 0.782), 0.794 (95% CI=0.775– 0.813), and 0.822 (95% CI=0.803– 0.841) for the development cohort, and 0.785 (95% CI=0.754– 0.816), 0.748 (95% CI=0.717– 0.779) and 0.896 (95% CI=0.865– 0.927) for the validation cohort in the CSS nomogram. The C-indices of the development and validation cohort were 0.718 (95% CI=0.639– 0.737) and 0.712 (95% CI=0.681– 0.743).Conclusion: The population-based nomogram could help clinicians predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients and provide a reference to perform appropriate metastatic screening plans and rational therapeutic options for the special population.Keywords: T1N0 colon cancer, distant metastasis, nomogram, SEER
format	article
author	Liu Y Zhang H Zheng M Wang C Hu Z Wang Y Xiong H Fan B Wang Y Hu H Tang Q Wang G
author_facet	Liu Y Zhang H Zheng M Wang C Hu Z Wang Y Xiong H Fan B Wang Y Hu H Tang Q Wang G
author_sort	Liu Y
title	Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study
title_short	Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study
title_full	Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study
title_fullStr	Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study
title_full_unstemmed	Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study
title_sort	nomogram to predict the occurrence and prognosis of distant metastasis in t1n0 colon cancer: a seer data-based study
publisher	Dove Medical Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a409742e4dda4dccaf7cc9d8d7ad1a62
work_keys_str_mv	AT liuy nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT zhangh nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT zhengm nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT wangc nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT huz nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT wangy nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT xiongh nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT fanb nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT wangy nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT huh nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT tangq nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy AT wangg nomogramtopredicttheoccurrenceandprognosisofdistantmetastasisint1n0coloncanceraseerdatabasedstudy
_version_	1718406343416610816

Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study

Ejemplares similares