Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes

Abstract It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a “fingerprint”. Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum inten...

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Autores principales:	Shuai Wang, Ralf Toumi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a422cc52f8494fb19478a98a6221c668
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a422cc52f8494fb19478a98a6221c6682021-11-21T12:22:51ZRecent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes10.1038/s41598-021-01612-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a422cc52f8494fb19478a98a6221c6682021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01612-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a “fingerprint”. Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size and integrated kinetic energy from the cold wakes for the period 1982–2019. We find a globally enhanced local cold wake amplitude 3 days after the LMI of − 0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade whereas the cold wake size does not show any significant change. Multivariate regression models based on the observed ocean cooling, the TC translation speed and the ocean mixed layer depth are applied to infer LMI and TC size. The inferred annual mean global LMI has increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s−1 per decade. This inferred trend is between that found for two directly observed data sets. However, the TC size and the TC destructive potential measured by the integrated kinetic energy, have not altered significantly. This analysis provides new independent and indirect evidence of recent TC LMI increases, but a stable size and integrated kinetic energy.Shuai WangRalf ToumiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shuai Wang Ralf Toumi Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes
description	Abstract It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a “fingerprint”. Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size and integrated kinetic energy from the cold wakes for the period 1982–2019. We find a globally enhanced local cold wake amplitude 3 days after the LMI of − 0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade whereas the cold wake size does not show any significant change. Multivariate regression models based on the observed ocean cooling, the TC translation speed and the ocean mixed layer depth are applied to infer LMI and TC size. The inferred annual mean global LMI has increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s−1 per decade. This inferred trend is between that found for two directly observed data sets. However, the TC size and the TC destructive potential measured by the integrated kinetic energy, have not altered significantly. This analysis provides new independent and indirect evidence of recent TC LMI increases, but a stable size and integrated kinetic energy.
format	article
author	Shuai Wang Ralf Toumi
author_facet	Shuai Wang Ralf Toumi
author_sort	Shuai Wang
title	Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes
title_short	Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes
title_full	Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes
title_fullStr	Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes
title_full_unstemmed	Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes
title_sort	recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a422cc52f8494fb19478a98a6221c668
work_keys_str_mv	AT shuaiwang recenttropicalcyclonechangesinferredfromoceansurfacetemperaturecoldwakes AT ralftoumi recenttropicalcyclonechangesinferredfromoceansurfacetemperaturecoldwakes
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Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes

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