A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences

Abstract We propose a simple 3-parameter model that provides very good fits for incidence curves of 18 common solid cancers even when variations due to different locations, races, or periods are taken into account. From a data perspective, we use model selection (Akaike information criterion) to sho...

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Autores principales:	Xiaoxiao Zhang, Holger Fröhlich, Dima Grigoriev, Sergey Vakulenko, Jörg Zimmermann, Andreas Günter Weber
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c2021-12-02T15:08:26ZA Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences10.1038/s41598-018-21734-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c2018-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21734-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We propose a simple 3-parameter model that provides very good fits for incidence curves of 18 common solid cancers even when variations due to different locations, races, or periods are taken into account. From a data perspective, we use model selection (Akaike information criterion) to show that this model, which is based on the Weibull distribution, outperforms other simple models like the Gamma distribution. From a modeling perspective, the Weibull distribution can be justified as modeling the accumulation of driver events, which establishes a link to stem cell division based cancer development models and a connection to a recursion formula for intrinsic cancer risk published by Wu et al. For the recursion formula a closed form solution is given, which will help to simplify future analyses. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis for the parameters, showing that two of the three parameters can vary over several orders of magnitude. However, the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, which corresponds to the number of driver mutations required for cancer onset, can be robustly estimated from epidemiological data.Xiaoxiao ZhangHolger FröhlichDima GrigorievSergey VakulenkoJörg ZimmermannAndreas Günter WeberNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xiaoxiao Zhang Holger Fröhlich Dima Grigoriev Sergey Vakulenko Jörg Zimmermann Andreas Günter Weber A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
description	Abstract We propose a simple 3-parameter model that provides very good fits for incidence curves of 18 common solid cancers even when variations due to different locations, races, or periods are taken into account. From a data perspective, we use model selection (Akaike information criterion) to show that this model, which is based on the Weibull distribution, outperforms other simple models like the Gamma distribution. From a modeling perspective, the Weibull distribution can be justified as modeling the accumulation of driver events, which establishes a link to stem cell division based cancer development models and a connection to a recursion formula for intrinsic cancer risk published by Wu et al. For the recursion formula a closed form solution is given, which will help to simplify future analyses. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis for the parameters, showing that two of the three parameters can vary over several orders of magnitude. However, the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, which corresponds to the number of driver mutations required for cancer onset, can be robustly estimated from epidemiological data.
format	article
author	Xiaoxiao Zhang Holger Fröhlich Dima Grigoriev Sergey Vakulenko Jörg Zimmermann Andreas Günter Weber
author_facet	Xiaoxiao Zhang Holger Fröhlich Dima Grigoriev Sergey Vakulenko Jörg Zimmermann Andreas Günter Weber
author_sort	Xiaoxiao Zhang
title	A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_short	A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_full	A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_fullStr	A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_full_unstemmed	A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_sort	simple 3-parameter model for cancer incidences
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c
work_keys_str_mv	AT xiaoxiaozhang asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT holgerfrohlich asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT dimagrigoriev asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT sergeyvakulenko asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT jorgzimmermann asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT andreasgunterweber asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT xiaoxiaozhang simple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT holgerfrohlich simple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT dimagrigoriev simple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT sergeyvakulenko simple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT jorgzimmermann simple3parametermodelforcancerincidences AT andreasgunterweber simple3parametermodelforcancerincidences
_version_	1718388141745766400

A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences

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