A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences

Abstract We propose a simple 3-parameter model that provides very good fits for incidence curves of 18 common solid cancers even when variations due to different locations, races, or periods are taken into account. From a data perspective, we use model selection (Akaike information criterion) to sho...

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Autores principales: Xiaoxiao Zhang, Holger Fröhlich, Dima Grigoriev, Sergey Vakulenko, Jörg Zimmermann, Andreas Günter Weber
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2018
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c2021-12-02T15:08:26ZA Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences10.1038/s41598-018-21734-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c2018-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21734-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We propose a simple 3-parameter model that provides very good fits for incidence curves of 18 common solid cancers even when variations due to different locations, races, or periods are taken into account. From a data perspective, we use model selection (Akaike information criterion) to show that this model, which is based on the Weibull distribution, outperforms other simple models like the Gamma distribution. From a modeling perspective, the Weibull distribution can be justified as modeling the accumulation of driver events, which establishes a link to stem cell division based cancer development models and a connection to a recursion formula for intrinsic cancer risk published by Wu et al. For the recursion formula a closed form solution is given, which will help to simplify future analyses. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis for the parameters, showing that two of the three parameters can vary over several orders of magnitude. However, the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, which corresponds to the number of driver mutations required for cancer onset, can be robustly estimated from epidemiological data.Xiaoxiao ZhangHolger FröhlichDima GrigorievSergey VakulenkoJörg ZimmermannAndreas Günter WeberNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2018)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Xiaoxiao Zhang
Holger Fröhlich
Dima Grigoriev
Sergey Vakulenko
Jörg Zimmermann
Andreas Günter Weber
A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
description Abstract We propose a simple 3-parameter model that provides very good fits for incidence curves of 18 common solid cancers even when variations due to different locations, races, or periods are taken into account. From a data perspective, we use model selection (Akaike information criterion) to show that this model, which is based on the Weibull distribution, outperforms other simple models like the Gamma distribution. From a modeling perspective, the Weibull distribution can be justified as modeling the accumulation of driver events, which establishes a link to stem cell division based cancer development models and a connection to a recursion formula for intrinsic cancer risk published by Wu et al. For the recursion formula a closed form solution is given, which will help to simplify future analyses. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis for the parameters, showing that two of the three parameters can vary over several orders of magnitude. However, the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, which corresponds to the number of driver mutations required for cancer onset, can be robustly estimated from epidemiological data.
format article
author Xiaoxiao Zhang
Holger Fröhlich
Dima Grigoriev
Sergey Vakulenko
Jörg Zimmermann
Andreas Günter Weber
author_facet Xiaoxiao Zhang
Holger Fröhlich
Dima Grigoriev
Sergey Vakulenko
Jörg Zimmermann
Andreas Günter Weber
author_sort Xiaoxiao Zhang
title A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_short A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_full A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_fullStr A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_full_unstemmed A Simple 3-Parameter Model for Cancer Incidences
title_sort simple 3-parameter model for cancer incidences
publisher Nature Portfolio
publishDate 2018
url https://doaj.org/article/a49c51a344b340679774293b34099f9c
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AT holgerfrohlich asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences
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AT sergeyvakulenko asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences
AT jorgzimmermann asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences
AT andreasgunterweber asimple3parametermodelforcancerincidences
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