Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.

<h4>Background</h4>To evaluate the effectiveness of a rapid molecular test for the detection of tuberculosis (TB) and to predict the rates of disease in a municipality of Brazil where TB is endemic.<h4>Methods</h4>An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto-SP on a...

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Autores principales: Thaís Zamboni Berra, Dulce Gomes, Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos, Yan Mathias Alves, Alexandre Tadashi Inomata Bruce, Luiz Henrique Arroyo, Felipe Lima Dos Santos, Ludmilla Leideanne Limirio Souza, Juliane de Almeida Crispim, Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio
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Publicado: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:a4b296135d83449e8b531a8e4f04dfe02021-12-02T20:05:25ZEffectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0252375https://doaj.org/article/a4b296135d83449e8b531a8e4f04dfe02021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252375https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>To evaluate the effectiveness of a rapid molecular test for the detection of tuberculosis (TB) and to predict the rates of disease in a municipality of Brazil where TB is endemic.<h4>Methods</h4>An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto-SP on a population of TB cases notified between 2006 and 2017. Monthly TB incidence rates and the average monthly percentage change (AMPC) were calculated. In order to identify changes in the series, the breakpoint technique was performed; the rates were modelled and predictions of the incidence of TB until 2025 were made.<h4>Results</h4>AMPC showed a fall of 0.69% per month in TB and human immunodeficiency virus (TB-HIV) co-infection, a fall of 0.01% per month in general and lung TB and a fall of 0.33% per month in extrapulmonary TB. With the breakpoint technique, general and pulmonary TB changed in structure in late 2007, and extrapulmonary TB and TB-HIV co-infection changed in structure after 2014, which is considered the cut-off point. The IMA(3) models were adjusted for general and pulmonary TB and TB-HIV co-infection, and the AR(5) models for extrapulmonary TB, and predictions were performed.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The rapid molecular test for TB is the method currently recommended by the WHO for the diagnosis of the disease and its main advantage is to provide faster, more accurate results and to already check for drug resistance. It is necessary that professionals encourage the use of this technology in order to optimize the diagnosis so that the treatment begins as quickly as possible and in an effective way. Only by uniting professionals from all areas with health policies aimed at early case identification and rapid treatment initiation it is possible to break the chain of TB transmission so that its rates decrease and the goals proposed by the WHO are achieved.Thaís Zamboni BerraDulce GomesAntônio Carlos Vieira RamosYan Mathias AlvesAlexandre Tadashi Inomata BruceLuiz Henrique ArroyoFelipe Lima Dos SantosLudmilla Leideanne Limirio SouzaJuliane de Almeida CrispimRicardo Alexandre ArcêncioPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 5, p e0252375 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Thaís Zamboni Berra
Dulce Gomes
Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos
Yan Mathias Alves
Alexandre Tadashi Inomata Bruce
Luiz Henrique Arroyo
Felipe Lima Dos Santos
Ludmilla Leideanne Limirio Souza
Juliane de Almeida Crispim
Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio
Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.
description <h4>Background</h4>To evaluate the effectiveness of a rapid molecular test for the detection of tuberculosis (TB) and to predict the rates of disease in a municipality of Brazil where TB is endemic.<h4>Methods</h4>An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto-SP on a population of TB cases notified between 2006 and 2017. Monthly TB incidence rates and the average monthly percentage change (AMPC) were calculated. In order to identify changes in the series, the breakpoint technique was performed; the rates were modelled and predictions of the incidence of TB until 2025 were made.<h4>Results</h4>AMPC showed a fall of 0.69% per month in TB and human immunodeficiency virus (TB-HIV) co-infection, a fall of 0.01% per month in general and lung TB and a fall of 0.33% per month in extrapulmonary TB. With the breakpoint technique, general and pulmonary TB changed in structure in late 2007, and extrapulmonary TB and TB-HIV co-infection changed in structure after 2014, which is considered the cut-off point. The IMA(3) models were adjusted for general and pulmonary TB and TB-HIV co-infection, and the AR(5) models for extrapulmonary TB, and predictions were performed.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The rapid molecular test for TB is the method currently recommended by the WHO for the diagnosis of the disease and its main advantage is to provide faster, more accurate results and to already check for drug resistance. It is necessary that professionals encourage the use of this technology in order to optimize the diagnosis so that the treatment begins as quickly as possible and in an effective way. Only by uniting professionals from all areas with health policies aimed at early case identification and rapid treatment initiation it is possible to break the chain of TB transmission so that its rates decrease and the goals proposed by the WHO are achieved.
format article
author Thaís Zamboni Berra
Dulce Gomes
Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos
Yan Mathias Alves
Alexandre Tadashi Inomata Bruce
Luiz Henrique Arroyo
Felipe Lima Dos Santos
Ludmilla Leideanne Limirio Souza
Juliane de Almeida Crispim
Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio
author_facet Thaís Zamboni Berra
Dulce Gomes
Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos
Yan Mathias Alves
Alexandre Tadashi Inomata Bruce
Luiz Henrique Arroyo
Felipe Lima Dos Santos
Ludmilla Leideanne Limirio Souza
Juliane de Almeida Crispim
Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio
author_sort Thaís Zamboni Berra
title Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.
title_short Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.
title_full Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.
title_fullStr Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.
title_full_unstemmed Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of GeneXpert in a city in south-eastern Brazil.
title_sort effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of genexpert in a city in south-eastern brazil.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/a4b296135d83449e8b531a8e4f04dfe0
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