High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.

The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin...

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Autores principales:	João Dinis de Sousa, Viktor Müller, Philippe Lemey, Anne-Mieke Vandamme
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2010
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a4ed46efc40d4981969530c7e08f3cca
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a4ed46efc40d4981969530c7e08f3cca2021-11-25T06:24:56ZHigh GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0009936https://doaj.org/article/a4ed46efc40d4981969530c7e08f3cca2010-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/20376191/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880-1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4-43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We surveyed colonial medical literature reporting incidences of GUD for the relevant regions, concentrating on cities, suffering less reporting biases than rural areas. Coinciding in time with the origin of the major HIV groups, colonial cities showed intense GUD outbreaks with incidences 1.5-2.5 orders of magnitude higher than in mid 20(th) century. We surveyed ethnographic literature, and concluded that male circumcision frequencies were lower in early 20(th) century than nowadays, with low rates correlating spatially with the emergence of HIV groups. We developed computer simulations to model the early spread of HIV-1 group M in Kinshasa before, during and after the estimated origin of the virus, using parameters derived from the colonial literature. These confirmed that the early 20(th) century was particularly permissive for the emergence of HIV by heterosexual transmission. The strongest potential facilitating factor was high GUD levels. Remarkably, the direct effects of city population size and circumcision frequency seemed relatively small. Our results suggest that intense GUD in promiscuous urban communities was the main factor driving HIV emergence. Low circumcision rates may have played a role, probably by their indirect effects on GUD.João Dinis de SousaViktor MüllerPhilippe LemeyAnne-Mieke VandammeAnne-Mieke VandammePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 5, Iss 4, p e9936 (2010)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q João Dinis de Sousa Viktor Müller Philippe Lemey Anne-Mieke Vandamme Anne-Mieke Vandamme High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.
description	The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880-1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4-43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We surveyed colonial medical literature reporting incidences of GUD for the relevant regions, concentrating on cities, suffering less reporting biases than rural areas. Coinciding in time with the origin of the major HIV groups, colonial cities showed intense GUD outbreaks with incidences 1.5-2.5 orders of magnitude higher than in mid 20(th) century. We surveyed ethnographic literature, and concluded that male circumcision frequencies were lower in early 20(th) century than nowadays, with low rates correlating spatially with the emergence of HIV groups. We developed computer simulations to model the early spread of HIV-1 group M in Kinshasa before, during and after the estimated origin of the virus, using parameters derived from the colonial literature. These confirmed that the early 20(th) century was particularly permissive for the emergence of HIV by heterosexual transmission. The strongest potential facilitating factor was high GUD levels. Remarkably, the direct effects of city population size and circumcision frequency seemed relatively small. Our results suggest that intense GUD in promiscuous urban communities was the main factor driving HIV emergence. Low circumcision rates may have played a role, probably by their indirect effects on GUD.
format	article
author	João Dinis de Sousa Viktor Müller Philippe Lemey Anne-Mieke Vandamme Anne-Mieke Vandamme
author_facet	João Dinis de Sousa Viktor Müller Philippe Lemey Anne-Mieke Vandamme Anne-Mieke Vandamme
author_sort	João Dinis de Sousa
title	High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.
title_short	High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.
title_full	High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.
title_fullStr	High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.
title_full_unstemmed	High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.
title_sort	high gud incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic hiv strains.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2010
url	https://doaj.org/article/a4ed46efc40d4981969530c7e08f3cca
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High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.

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