"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.

Vaccinating individuals with more exposure to others can be disproportionately effective, in theory, but identifying these individuals is difficult and has long prevented implementation of such strategies. Here, we propose how the technology underlying digital contact tracing could be harnessed to b...

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Autores principales:	Mark D Penney, Yigit Yargic, Lee Smolin, Edward W Thommes, Madhur Anand, Chris T Bauch
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a50777f8235848eeb2fabbfc2e0b6438
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a50777f8235848eeb2fabbfc2e0b64382021-12-02T20:14:16Z"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0256889https://doaj.org/article/a50777f8235848eeb2fabbfc2e0b64382021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256889https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Vaccinating individuals with more exposure to others can be disproportionately effective, in theory, but identifying these individuals is difficult and has long prevented implementation of such strategies. Here, we propose how the technology underlying digital contact tracing could be harnessed to boost vaccine coverage among these individuals. In order to assess the impact of this "hot-spotting" proposal we model the spread of disease using percolation theory, a collection of analytical techniques from statistical physics. Furthermore, we introduce a novel measure which we call the efficiency, defined as the percentage decrease in the reproduction number per percentage of the population vaccinated. We find that optimal implementations of the proposal can achieve herd immunity with as little as half as many vaccine doses as a non-targeted strategy, and is attractive even for relatively low rates of app usage.Mark D PenneyYigit YargicLee SmolinEdward W ThommesMadhur AnandChris T BauchPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e0256889 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mark D Penney Yigit Yargic Lee Smolin Edward W Thommes Madhur Anand Chris T Bauch "Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.
description	Vaccinating individuals with more exposure to others can be disproportionately effective, in theory, but identifying these individuals is difficult and has long prevented implementation of such strategies. Here, we propose how the technology underlying digital contact tracing could be harnessed to boost vaccine coverage among these individuals. In order to assess the impact of this "hot-spotting" proposal we model the spread of disease using percolation theory, a collection of analytical techniques from statistical physics. Furthermore, we introduce a novel measure which we call the efficiency, defined as the percentage decrease in the reproduction number per percentage of the population vaccinated. We find that optimal implementations of the proposal can achieve herd immunity with as little as half as many vaccine doses as a non-targeted strategy, and is attractive even for relatively low rates of app usage.
format	article
author	Mark D Penney Yigit Yargic Lee Smolin Edward W Thommes Madhur Anand Chris T Bauch
author_facet	Mark D Penney Yigit Yargic Lee Smolin Edward W Thommes Madhur Anand Chris T Bauch
author_sort	Mark D Penney
title	"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.
title_short	"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.
title_full	"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.
title_fullStr	"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.
title_full_unstemmed	"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.
title_sort	"hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: an application of percolation theory.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a50777f8235848eeb2fabbfc2e0b6438
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"Hot-spotting" to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory.

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