Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future

It is commonly believed that climate plays an important role in shaping the patterns of plant species richness. However, it remains unclear how climate may affect plant richness across large spatial scales and also over long-terms, for example across massive arid regions during the Quaternary and in...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Ying Sun, Yuan Sun, Shuran Yao, Muhammad Adnan Akram, Weigang Hu, Longwei Dong, Hailing Li, Maohong Wei, Haiyang Gong, Shubin Xie, Muhammad Aqeel, Jinzhi Ran, Abraham Allan Degen, Qinfeng Guo, Jianming Deng
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Drylands Geographical patterns Lifeforms Plant species richness Random forest Temporal variations Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a510a73e014a43e2b122af0e867a60ff
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:a510a73e014a43e2b122af0e867a60ff
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a510a73e014a43e2b122af0e867a60ff2021-12-01T05:01:56ZImpact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108288https://doaj.org/article/a510a73e014a43e2b122af0e867a60ff2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21009535https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XIt is commonly believed that climate plays an important role in shaping the patterns of plant species richness. However, it remains unclear how climate may affect plant richness across large spatial scales and also over long-terms, for example across massive arid regions during the Quaternary and into the future. To fill this knowledge gap, we examined the long-term trends in plant species richness across vast drylands in China based on our newly developed climate-species richness models. We first generated optimal random forest models based on the relationships between the current (CUR, 1970–2000) annual, perennial, woody and total species richness and climatic variables. We subsequently hindcasted and forecasted plant species richness in five other periods: last interglacial (LIG, 120,000–140,000 years BP), last glacial maximum (LGM, about 22,000 years BP), mid-Holocene (MH, about 6000 years BP), 2041–2060 (2050), and 2061–2080 (2070). Our results showed that total and herbaceous species richness exhibited similar patterns that were driven by temperature and precipitation. Both groups of species formed a transition zone between arid and semi-arid regions in all periods except LIG. In contrast, woody species richness did not form any transition zone because it was regulated mainly by temperature. Furthermore, the mean richness of herbaceous, woody and all species exhibited gradually increasing trends from LIG to 2070 across drylands in China. On the one hand, herbaceous species were much more sensitive to climate change than woody species. On the other hand, plant species richness in mountain-basin systems and Taklamakan Desert regions were more sensitive to climate change than in meadows and steppes. These results shed new insights into the past and future changes in plant species richness over vast drylands and provide valuable information for future conservation efforts under global warming.Ying SunYuan SunShuran YaoMuhammad Adnan AkramWeigang HuLongwei DongHailing LiMaohong WeiHaiyang GongShubin XieMuhammad AqeelJinzhi RanAbraham Allan DegenQinfeng GuoJianming DengElsevierarticleDrylandsGeographical patternsLifeformsPlant species richnessRandom forestTemporal variationsEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 132, Iss , Pp 108288- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Drylands Geographical patterns Lifeforms Plant species richness Random forest Temporal variations Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Drylands Geographical patterns Lifeforms Plant species richness Random forest Temporal variations Ecology QH540-549.5 Ying Sun Yuan Sun Shuran Yao Muhammad Adnan Akram Weigang Hu Longwei Dong Hailing Li Maohong Wei Haiyang Gong Shubin Xie Muhammad Aqeel Jinzhi Ran Abraham Allan Degen Qinfeng Guo Jianming Deng Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future
description	It is commonly believed that climate plays an important role in shaping the patterns of plant species richness. However, it remains unclear how climate may affect plant richness across large spatial scales and also over long-terms, for example across massive arid regions during the Quaternary and into the future. To fill this knowledge gap, we examined the long-term trends in plant species richness across vast drylands in China based on our newly developed climate-species richness models. We first generated optimal random forest models based on the relationships between the current (CUR, 1970–2000) annual, perennial, woody and total species richness and climatic variables. We subsequently hindcasted and forecasted plant species richness in five other periods: last interglacial (LIG, 120,000–140,000 years BP), last glacial maximum (LGM, about 22,000 years BP), mid-Holocene (MH, about 6000 years BP), 2041–2060 (2050), and 2061–2080 (2070). Our results showed that total and herbaceous species richness exhibited similar patterns that were driven by temperature and precipitation. Both groups of species formed a transition zone between arid and semi-arid regions in all periods except LIG. In contrast, woody species richness did not form any transition zone because it was regulated mainly by temperature. Furthermore, the mean richness of herbaceous, woody and all species exhibited gradually increasing trends from LIG to 2070 across drylands in China. On the one hand, herbaceous species were much more sensitive to climate change than woody species. On the other hand, plant species richness in mountain-basin systems and Taklamakan Desert regions were more sensitive to climate change than in meadows and steppes. These results shed new insights into the past and future changes in plant species richness over vast drylands and provide valuable information for future conservation efforts under global warming.
format	article
author	Ying Sun Yuan Sun Shuran Yao Muhammad Adnan Akram Weigang Hu Longwei Dong Hailing Li Maohong Wei Haiyang Gong Shubin Xie Muhammad Aqeel Jinzhi Ran Abraham Allan Degen Qinfeng Guo Jianming Deng
author_facet	Ying Sun Yuan Sun Shuran Yao Muhammad Adnan Akram Weigang Hu Longwei Dong Hailing Li Maohong Wei Haiyang Gong Shubin Xie Muhammad Aqeel Jinzhi Ran Abraham Allan Degen Qinfeng Guo Jianming Deng
author_sort	Ying Sun
title	Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future
title_short	Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future
title_full	Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future
title_fullStr	Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future
title_sort	impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in china: from past to present and into the future
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a510a73e014a43e2b122af0e867a60ff
work_keys_str_mv	AT yingsun impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT yuansun impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT shuranyao impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT muhammadadnanakram impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT weiganghu impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT longweidong impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT hailingli impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT maohongwei impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT haiyanggong impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT shubinxie impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT muhammadaqeel impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT jinzhiran impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT abrahamallandegen impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT qinfengguo impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture AT jianmingdeng impactofclimatechangeonplantspeciesrichnessacrossdrylandsinchinafrompasttopresentandintothefuture
_version_	1718405618682822656

Impact of climate change on plant species richness across drylands in China: From past to present and into the future

Ejemplares similares