A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries

Abstract While the effectiveness of lockdowns to reduce Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) transmission is well established, uncertainties remain on the lifting principles of these restrictive interventions. World Health Organization recommends case positive rate of 5% or lower as a threshold for s...

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Autores principales:	Abu S. Shonchoy, Khandker S. Ishtiaq, Sajedul Talukder, Nasar U. Ahmed, Rajiv Chowdhury
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a58110818b6544f3a548a7e5b342c5c2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a58110818b6544f3a548a7e5b342c5c22021-12-02T15:39:41ZA novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries10.1038/s41598-021-93415-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a58110818b6544f3a548a7e5b342c5c22021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93415-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract While the effectiveness of lockdowns to reduce Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) transmission is well established, uncertainties remain on the lifting principles of these restrictive interventions. World Health Organization recommends case positive rate of 5% or lower as a threshold for safe reopening. However, inadequate testing capacity limits the applicability of this recommendation, especially in the low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). To develop a practical reopening strategy for LMICs, in this study, we first identify the optimal timing of safe reopening by exploring accessible epidemiological data of 24 countries during the initial COVID-19 surge. We find that a safe opening can occur two weeks after the crossover of daily infection and recovery rates while maintaining a negative trend in daily new cases. Epidemiologic SIRM model-based example simulation supports our findings. Finally, we develop an easily interpretable large-scale reopening (LSR) index, which is an evidence-based toolkit—to guide/inform reopening decision for LMICs.Abu S. ShonchoyKhandker S. IshtiaqSajedul TalukderNasar U. AhmedRajiv ChowdhuryNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Abu S. Shonchoy Khandker S. Ishtiaq Sajedul Talukder Nasar U. Ahmed Rajiv Chowdhury A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries
description	Abstract While the effectiveness of lockdowns to reduce Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) transmission is well established, uncertainties remain on the lifting principles of these restrictive interventions. World Health Organization recommends case positive rate of 5% or lower as a threshold for safe reopening. However, inadequate testing capacity limits the applicability of this recommendation, especially in the low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). To develop a practical reopening strategy for LMICs, in this study, we first identify the optimal timing of safe reopening by exploring accessible epidemiological data of 24 countries during the initial COVID-19 surge. We find that a safe opening can occur two weeks after the crossover of daily infection and recovery rates while maintaining a negative trend in daily new cases. Epidemiologic SIRM model-based example simulation supports our findings. Finally, we develop an easily interpretable large-scale reopening (LSR) index, which is an evidence-based toolkit—to guide/inform reopening decision for LMICs.
format	article
author	Abu S. Shonchoy Khandker S. Ishtiaq Sajedul Talukder Nasar U. Ahmed Rajiv Chowdhury
author_facet	Abu S. Shonchoy Khandker S. Ishtiaq Sajedul Talukder Nasar U. Ahmed Rajiv Chowdhury
author_sort	Abu S. Shonchoy
title	A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries
title_short	A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries
title_full	A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries
title_fullStr	A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries
title_full_unstemmed	A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries
title_sort	novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a58110818b6544f3a548a7e5b342c5c2
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A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries

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