Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.

<h4>Background</h4>There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months.<h4>Methods</h4>A prospective cohort study with...

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Autores principales: Patricia Moreno-Peral, Juan de Dios Luna, Louise Marston, Michael King, Irwin Nazareth, Emma Motrico, María Josefa GildeGómez-Barragán, Francisco Torres-González, Carmen Montón-Franco, Marta Sánchez-Celaya, Miguel Ángel Díaz-Barreiros, Catalina Vicens, Carlos Muñoz-Bravo, Juan Ángel Bellón
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Publicado: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/a5e0abf7964044a58f52081694ee9e2d
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:a5e0abf7964044a58f52081694ee9e2d2021-11-25T06:02:05ZPredicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0106370https://doaj.org/article/a5e0abf7964044a58f52081694ee9e2d2014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/25184313/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months.<h4>Methods</h4>A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the risk algorithm. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety, panic and other non-specific anxiety syndromes as measured by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders, Patient Health Questionnaire (PRIME-MD-PHQ). We recruited 3,564 adult primary care attendees without anxiety syndromes from 174 family physicians and 32 health centers in 6 Spanish provinces.<h4>Results</h4>The cumulative 12-month incidence of anxiety syndromes was 12.2%. The predictA-Spain risk algorithm included the following predictors of anxiety syndromes: province; sex (female); younger age; taking medicines for anxiety, depression or stress; worse physical and mental quality of life (SF-12); dissatisfaction with paid and unpaid work; perception of financial strain; and the interactions sex*age, sex*perception of financial strain, and age*dissatisfaction with paid work. The C-index was 0.80 (95% confidence interval=0.78-0.83) and the Hedges' g=1.17 (95% confidence interval=1.04-1.29). The Copas shrinkage factor was 0.98 and calibration plots showed an accurate goodness of fit.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The predictA-Spain risk algorithm is valid to predict anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Although external validation is required, the predictA-Spain is available for use as a predictive tool in the prevention of anxiety syndromes in primary care.Patricia Moreno-PeralJuan de Dios LunaLouise MarstonMichael KingIrwin NazarethEmma MotricoMaría Josefa GildeGómez-BarragánFrancisco Torres-GonzálezCarmen Montón-FrancoMarta Sánchez-CelayaMiguel Ángel Díaz-BarreirosCatalina VicensCarlos Muñoz-BravoJuan Ángel BellónPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 9, p e106370 (2014)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Patricia Moreno-Peral
Juan de Dios Luna
Louise Marston
Michael King
Irwin Nazareth
Emma Motrico
María Josefa GildeGómez-Barragán
Francisco Torres-González
Carmen Montón-Franco
Marta Sánchez-Celaya
Miguel Ángel Díaz-Barreiros
Catalina Vicens
Carlos Muñoz-Bravo
Juan Ángel Bellón
Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.
description <h4>Background</h4>There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months.<h4>Methods</h4>A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the risk algorithm. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety, panic and other non-specific anxiety syndromes as measured by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders, Patient Health Questionnaire (PRIME-MD-PHQ). We recruited 3,564 adult primary care attendees without anxiety syndromes from 174 family physicians and 32 health centers in 6 Spanish provinces.<h4>Results</h4>The cumulative 12-month incidence of anxiety syndromes was 12.2%. The predictA-Spain risk algorithm included the following predictors of anxiety syndromes: province; sex (female); younger age; taking medicines for anxiety, depression or stress; worse physical and mental quality of life (SF-12); dissatisfaction with paid and unpaid work; perception of financial strain; and the interactions sex*age, sex*perception of financial strain, and age*dissatisfaction with paid work. The C-index was 0.80 (95% confidence interval=0.78-0.83) and the Hedges' g=1.17 (95% confidence interval=1.04-1.29). The Copas shrinkage factor was 0.98 and calibration plots showed an accurate goodness of fit.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The predictA-Spain risk algorithm is valid to predict anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Although external validation is required, the predictA-Spain is available for use as a predictive tool in the prevention of anxiety syndromes in primary care.
format article
author Patricia Moreno-Peral
Juan de Dios Luna
Louise Marston
Michael King
Irwin Nazareth
Emma Motrico
María Josefa GildeGómez-Barragán
Francisco Torres-González
Carmen Montón-Franco
Marta Sánchez-Celaya
Miguel Ángel Díaz-Barreiros
Catalina Vicens
Carlos Muñoz-Bravo
Juan Ángel Bellón
author_facet Patricia Moreno-Peral
Juan de Dios Luna
Louise Marston
Michael King
Irwin Nazareth
Emma Motrico
María Josefa GildeGómez-Barragán
Francisco Torres-González
Carmen Montón-Franco
Marta Sánchez-Celaya
Miguel Ángel Díaz-Barreiros
Catalina Vicens
Carlos Muñoz-Bravo
Juan Ángel Bellón
author_sort Patricia Moreno-Peral
title Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.
title_short Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.
title_full Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.
title_fullStr Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.
title_sort predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. the predicta-spain study.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate 2014
url https://doaj.org/article/a5e0abf7964044a58f52081694ee9e2d
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