Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.

Australia was one of the first countries to introduce government-funded unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, with 88,790 treated since March 2016. However, treatment uptake is declining which could potentially undermine Australia's progress towards the WHO HCV eliminati...

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Autores principales:	Jisoo A Kwon, Gregory J Dore, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Maryam Alavi, Heather Valerio, Jason Grebely, Rebecca Guy, Richard T Gray
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a63dcc15124f40ed9e97c518ecbcc795
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a63dcc15124f40ed9e97c518ecbcc7952021-12-02T20:06:15ZAustralia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0257369https://doaj.org/article/a63dcc15124f40ed9e97c518ecbcc7952021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257369https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Australia was one of the first countries to introduce government-funded unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, with 88,790 treated since March 2016. However, treatment uptake is declining which could potentially undermine Australia's progress towards the WHO HCV elimination targets. Using mathematical modelling, we updated estimates for those living with chronic HCV in Australia, new cases of decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality among the HCV-cured and viraemic populations from 2015 to 2030. We considered various DAA treatment scenarios incorporating annual treatment numbers to 2020, and subsequent uptake per year of 6,790 (pessimistic), 8,100 (intermediate), and 11,310 (optimistic). We incorporated the effects of excess alcohol consumption and reduction in progression to DC and HCC among cirrhosis-cured versus viraemic individuals. At the end of 2020, we estimated 117,810 Australians were living with chronic HCV. New cases per year of DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality among the HCV viraemic population decreased rapidly from 2015 (almost eliminated by 2030). In contrast, the growing population size of those cured with advanced liver disease meant DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality declined slowly. The estimated reduction in liver-related mortality from 2015 to 2030 in the combined HCV viraemic and cured population is 25% in the intermediate scenario. With declining HCV treatment uptake and ongoing individual-level risk of advanced liver disease complications, including among cirrhosis-cured individuals, Australia is unlikely to achieve all WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030.Jisoo A KwonGregory J DoreBehzad HajarizadehMaryam AlaviHeather ValerioJason GrebelyRebecca GuyRichard T GrayPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e0257369 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jisoo A Kwon Gregory J Dore Behzad Hajarizadeh Maryam Alavi Heather Valerio Jason Grebely Rebecca Guy Richard T Gray Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
description	Australia was one of the first countries to introduce government-funded unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, with 88,790 treated since March 2016. However, treatment uptake is declining which could potentially undermine Australia's progress towards the WHO HCV elimination targets. Using mathematical modelling, we updated estimates for those living with chronic HCV in Australia, new cases of decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality among the HCV-cured and viraemic populations from 2015 to 2030. We considered various DAA treatment scenarios incorporating annual treatment numbers to 2020, and subsequent uptake per year of 6,790 (pessimistic), 8,100 (intermediate), and 11,310 (optimistic). We incorporated the effects of excess alcohol consumption and reduction in progression to DC and HCC among cirrhosis-cured versus viraemic individuals. At the end of 2020, we estimated 117,810 Australians were living with chronic HCV. New cases per year of DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality among the HCV viraemic population decreased rapidly from 2015 (almost eliminated by 2030). In contrast, the growing population size of those cured with advanced liver disease meant DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality declined slowly. The estimated reduction in liver-related mortality from 2015 to 2030 in the combined HCV viraemic and cured population is 25% in the intermediate scenario. With declining HCV treatment uptake and ongoing individual-level risk of advanced liver disease complications, including among cirrhosis-cured individuals, Australia is unlikely to achieve all WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030.
format	article
author	Jisoo A Kwon Gregory J Dore Behzad Hajarizadeh Maryam Alavi Heather Valerio Jason Grebely Rebecca Guy Richard T Gray
author_facet	Jisoo A Kwon Gregory J Dore Behzad Hajarizadeh Maryam Alavi Heather Valerio Jason Grebely Rebecca Guy Richard T Gray
author_sort	Jisoo A Kwon
title	Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
title_short	Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
title_full	Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
title_fullStr	Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
title_full_unstemmed	Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
title_sort	australia could miss the who hepatitis c virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a63dcc15124f40ed9e97c518ecbcc795
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Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.

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