How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?

Epidemic curves are used by decision makers and the public to infer the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and to understand the appropriateness of response measures. Symptom onset date is commonly used to date incident cases on the epidemic curve in public health reports and dashboards; however, t...

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Autores principales:	Jean-Paul R. Soucy, Sarah A. Buchan, Kevin A. Brown
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	McGill University 2021
Materias:	Epidemics COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Communicable diseases Epidemiology Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a64c4c6220c046f8a33aacdc15cc3715
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a64c4c6220c046f8a33aacdc15cc37152021-11-23T01:10:08ZHow should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?10.26443/mjm.v20i1.9011715-8125https://doaj.org/article/a64c4c6220c046f8a33aacdc15cc37152021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://mjm.mcgill.ca/article/view/901https://doaj.org/toc/1715-8125Epidemic curves are used by decision makers and the public to infer the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and to understand the appropriateness of response measures. Symptom onset date is commonly used to date incident cases on the epidemic curve in public health reports and dashboards; however, third-party trackers date cases by the date they were publicly reported by the public health authority. These two curves create very different impressions of epidemic progression. On April 1, 2020, the epidemic curve based on public reporting date for Ontario, Canada showed an accelerating epidemic, whereas the curve based on a proxy variable for symptom onset date showed a rapidly declining epidemic. This illusory downward trend is a feature of epidemic curves anchored using date variables earlier in time than the date a case was publicly reported, such as the symptom onset date. Delays between the onset of symptoms and the detection of a case by the public health authority mean that recent days will always have incomplete case data, creating a downward bias. Public reporting date is not subject to this bias and can be used to visualize real-time epidemic curves meant to inform the public and decision makers. Jean-Paul R. SoucySarah A. BuchanKevin A. BrownMcGill UniversityarticleEpidemicsCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Communicable diseasesEpidemiologyMedicineRENMcGill Journal of Medicine, Vol 20, Iss 1 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Epidemics COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Communicable diseases Epidemiology Medicine R
spellingShingle	Epidemics COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Communicable diseases Epidemiology Medicine R Jean-Paul R. Soucy Sarah A. Buchan Kevin A. Brown How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?
description	Epidemic curves are used by decision makers and the public to infer the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and to understand the appropriateness of response measures. Symptom onset date is commonly used to date incident cases on the epidemic curve in public health reports and dashboards; however, third-party trackers date cases by the date they were publicly reported by the public health authority. These two curves create very different impressions of epidemic progression. On April 1, 2020, the epidemic curve based on public reporting date for Ontario, Canada showed an accelerating epidemic, whereas the curve based on a proxy variable for symptom onset date showed a rapidly declining epidemic. This illusory downward trend is a feature of epidemic curves anchored using date variables earlier in time than the date a case was publicly reported, such as the symptom onset date. Delays between the onset of symptoms and the detection of a case by the public health authority mean that recent days will always have incomplete case data, creating a downward bias. Public reporting date is not subject to this bias and can be used to visualize real-time epidemic curves meant to inform the public and decision makers.
format	article
author	Jean-Paul R. Soucy Sarah A. Buchan Kevin A. Brown
author_facet	Jean-Paul R. Soucy Sarah A. Buchan Kevin A. Brown
author_sort	Jean-Paul R. Soucy
title	How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?
title_short	How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?
title_full	How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?
title_fullStr	How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?
title_full_unstemmed	How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?
title_sort	how should we present the epidemic curve for covid-19?
publisher	McGill University
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a64c4c6220c046f8a33aacdc15cc3715
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeanpaulrsoucy howshouldwepresenttheepidemiccurveforcovid19 AT sarahabuchan howshouldwepresenttheepidemiccurveforcovid19 AT kevinabrown howshouldwepresenttheepidemiccurveforcovid19
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How should we present the epidemic curve for COVID-19?

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