Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update

Background: Despite the available diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease currently occurring. Even some high-income countries in the world do not fully control it at this time. The reason for this situation is the lack of elimination programs to address the sit...

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Autores principales:	Lukas Kober, Ivan Solovic, Vladimir Littva, Vladimir Siska
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Tehran University of Medical Sciences 2021
Materias:	Tuberculosis Incidence Epidemiological situation Time series prediction Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a67a2c04744948389bb1adb2ca696c79
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a67a2c04744948389bb1adb2ca696c792021-12-02T18:23:25ZPrediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update2251-60852251-6093https://doaj.org/article/a67a2c04744948389bb1adb2ca696c792021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/19217https://doaj.org/toc/2251-6085https://doaj.org/toc/2251-6093 Background: Despite the available diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease currently occurring. Even some high-income countries in the world do not fully control it at this time. The reason for this situation is the lack of elimination programs to address the situation. The aim of the update of the prediction data was to create a presumption of TB development in Slovakia by 2040. Methods: We used the time series prediction method with exponential equalization. The basis for the calculation were historical data on the incidence of TB from 1960 to 2018 in Slovakia (data for the last 58 yr). This time series has a clearly declining level. In view of this trend, we have set a threshold, whether and when the incidence in the future will fall below 5.0 patients per 100,000 inhabitants. Results: In case of a favorable development, the limit of our incidence drop below 5.0 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2022, when the incidence will be 4.91 per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2040, the predicted incidence of TB should be 1.78 per 100 000 inhabitants. A gradual decline may also be related to a decrease in the population of the Slovak Republic. Conclusion: Slovakia belongs to those countries of the world where TB is under control. Increased surveillance of high-risk communities through community interventions and countries' readiness for global migration can help to influence factors that may aggravate the epidemiological situation of TB. Lukas KoberIvan SolovicVladimir LittvaVladimir SiskaTehran University of Medical SciencesarticleTuberculosisIncidenceEpidemiological situationTime series predictionPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENIranian Journal of Public Health, Vol 50, Iss 11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Tuberculosis Incidence Epidemiological situation Time series prediction Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Tuberculosis Incidence Epidemiological situation Time series prediction Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Lukas Kober Ivan Solovic Vladimir Littva Vladimir Siska Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update
description	Background: Despite the available diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease currently occurring. Even some high-income countries in the world do not fully control it at this time. The reason for this situation is the lack of elimination programs to address the situation. The aim of the update of the prediction data was to create a presumption of TB development in Slovakia by 2040. Methods: We used the time series prediction method with exponential equalization. The basis for the calculation were historical data on the incidence of TB from 1960 to 2018 in Slovakia (data for the last 58 yr). This time series has a clearly declining level. In view of this trend, we have set a threshold, whether and when the incidence in the future will fall below 5.0 patients per 100,000 inhabitants. Results: In case of a favorable development, the limit of our incidence drop below 5.0 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2022, when the incidence will be 4.91 per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2040, the predicted incidence of TB should be 1.78 per 100 000 inhabitants. A gradual decline may also be related to a decrease in the population of the Slovak Republic. Conclusion: Slovakia belongs to those countries of the world where TB is under control. Increased surveillance of high-risk communities through community interventions and countries' readiness for global migration can help to influence factors that may aggravate the epidemiological situation of TB.
format	article
author	Lukas Kober Ivan Solovic Vladimir Littva Vladimir Siska
author_facet	Lukas Kober Ivan Solovic Vladimir Littva Vladimir Siska
author_sort	Lukas Kober
title	Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update
title_short	Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update
title_full	Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update
title_fullStr	Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update
title_sort	prediction of the epidemiological situation of tuberculosis in slovakia by 2040- data update
publisher	Tehran University of Medical Sciences
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a67a2c04744948389bb1adb2ca696c79
work_keys_str_mv	AT lukaskober predictionoftheepidemiologicalsituationoftuberculosisinslovakiaby2040dataupdate AT ivansolovic predictionoftheepidemiologicalsituationoftuberculosisinslovakiaby2040dataupdate AT vladimirlittva predictionoftheepidemiologicalsituationoftuberculosisinslovakiaby2040dataupdate AT vladimirsiska predictionoftheepidemiologicalsituationoftuberculosisinslovakiaby2040dataupdate
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Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update

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