Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India

Abstract Consecutive failures in the summer monsoon rainfall led to widespread and severe droughts with profound implications for agricultural activities in India. However, the likelihood of successive megadroughts in India’s past and future climate remain poorly understood. Using Palmer Drought Sev...

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Autores principales:	Vimal Mishra, Saran Aadhar
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a68b207ba5654fbf991c28854033a531
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a68b207ba5654fbf991c28854033a5312021-12-05T12:18:35ZFamines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India10.1038/s41612-021-00219-12397-3722https://doaj.org/article/a68b207ba5654fbf991c28854033a5312021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00219-1https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Consecutive failures in the summer monsoon rainfall led to widespread and severe droughts with profound implications for agricultural activities in India. However, the likelihood of successive megadroughts in India’s past and future climate remain poorly understood. Using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), we show that the major famines that affected millions of people during 1200–2018 were linked with summer monsoon droughts. Four megadroughts covering more than 40% of the country occurred for two consecutive summer monsoon seasons during 1200–2018. The most recent and severe megadrought occurred in 2002–2003. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the last millennium (850–2005) ensemble (LME) show that the likelihood of two and three-year consecutive megadroughts during the summer monsoon is about 0.7 and 0.3 events per 100 years, respectively. Large ensemble simulations from CESM (CESM-LE) show a decline in the frequency of megadroughts in the future. Summer monsoon megadroughts are strongly associated with the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific Ocean in the past and future climate. Substantial warming under the projected future climate can cause megadroughts under near-normal precipitation during the summer monsoon season. Despite the projected decline in the likelihood of the summer monsoon megadroughts under the warming climate, megadroughts in the future can have considerable implications for India’s food production and water availability.Vimal MishraSaran AadharNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Vimal Mishra Saran Aadhar Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India
description	Abstract Consecutive failures in the summer monsoon rainfall led to widespread and severe droughts with profound implications for agricultural activities in India. However, the likelihood of successive megadroughts in India’s past and future climate remain poorly understood. Using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), we show that the major famines that affected millions of people during 1200–2018 were linked with summer monsoon droughts. Four megadroughts covering more than 40% of the country occurred for two consecutive summer monsoon seasons during 1200–2018. The most recent and severe megadrought occurred in 2002–2003. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the last millennium (850–2005) ensemble (LME) show that the likelihood of two and three-year consecutive megadroughts during the summer monsoon is about 0.7 and 0.3 events per 100 years, respectively. Large ensemble simulations from CESM (CESM-LE) show a decline in the frequency of megadroughts in the future. Summer monsoon megadroughts are strongly associated with the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific Ocean in the past and future climate. Substantial warming under the projected future climate can cause megadroughts under near-normal precipitation during the summer monsoon season. Despite the projected decline in the likelihood of the summer monsoon megadroughts under the warming climate, megadroughts in the future can have considerable implications for India’s food production and water availability.
format	article
author	Vimal Mishra Saran Aadhar
author_facet	Vimal Mishra Saran Aadhar
author_sort	Vimal Mishra
title	Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India
title_short	Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India
title_full	Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India
title_fullStr	Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India
title_full_unstemmed	Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India
title_sort	famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in india
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a68b207ba5654fbf991c28854033a531
work_keys_str_mv	AT vimalmishra faminesandlikelihoodofconsecutivemegadroughtsinindia AT saranaadhar faminesandlikelihoodofconsecutivemegadroughtsinindia
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Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India

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