Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

Abstract The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mor...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Swapnil Mishra, James A. Scott, Daniel J. Laydon, Seth Flaxman, Axel Gandy, Thomas A. Mellan, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Michaela Vollmer, Helen Coupland, Oliver Ratmann, Melodie Monod, Harrison H. Zhu, Anne Cori, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, Lilith K. Whittles, Charles Whittaker, Christl A. Donnelly, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a7909190430045a9bb3b5a995db32e9e
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:a7909190430045a9bb3b5a995db32e9e
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a7909190430045a9bb3b5a995db32e9e2021-12-02T16:28:00ZComparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling10.1038/s41598-021-95699-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a7909190430045a9bb3b5a995db32e9e2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.Swapnil MishraJames A. ScottDaniel J. LaydonSeth FlaxmanAxel GandyThomas A. MellanH. Juliette T. UnwinMichaela VollmerHelen CouplandOliver RatmannMelodie MonodHarrison H. ZhuAnne CoriKaty A. M. GaythorpeLilith K. WhittlesCharles WhittakerChristl A. DonnellyNeil M. FergusonSamir BhattNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Swapnil Mishra James A. Scott Daniel J. Laydon Seth Flaxman Axel Gandy Thomas A. Mellan H. Juliette T. Unwin Michaela Vollmer Helen Coupland Oliver Ratmann Melodie Monod Harrison H. Zhu Anne Cori Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Lilith K. Whittles Charles Whittaker Christl A. Donnelly Neil M. Ferguson Samir Bhatt Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
description	Abstract The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.
format	article
author	Swapnil Mishra James A. Scott Daniel J. Laydon Seth Flaxman Axel Gandy Thomas A. Mellan H. Juliette T. Unwin Michaela Vollmer Helen Coupland Oliver Ratmann Melodie Monod Harrison H. Zhu Anne Cori Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Lilith K. Whittles Charles Whittaker Christl A. Donnelly Neil M. Ferguson Samir Bhatt
author_facet	Swapnil Mishra James A. Scott Daniel J. Laydon Seth Flaxman Axel Gandy Thomas A. Mellan H. Juliette T. Unwin Michaela Vollmer Helen Coupland Oliver Ratmann Melodie Monod Harrison H. Zhu Anne Cori Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Lilith K. Whittles Charles Whittaker Christl A. Donnelly Neil M. Ferguson Samir Bhatt
author_sort	Swapnil Mishra
title	Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
title_short	Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
title_full	Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
title_fullStr	Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
title_full_unstemmed	Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
title_sort	comparing the responses of the uk, sweden and denmark to covid-19 using counterfactual modelling
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a7909190430045a9bb3b5a995db32e9e
work_keys_str_mv	AT swapnilmishra comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT jamesascott comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT danieljlaydon comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT sethflaxman comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT axelgandy comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT thomasamellan comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT hjuliettetunwin comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT michaelavollmer comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT helencoupland comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT oliverratmann comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT melodiemonod comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT harrisonhzhu comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT annecori comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT katyamgaythorpe comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT lilithkwhittles comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT charleswhittaker comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT christladonnelly comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT neilmferguson comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling AT samirbhatt comparingtheresponsesoftheukswedenanddenmarktocovid19usingcounterfactualmodelling
_version_	1718383947452252160

Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

Ejemplares similares