Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures

This paper presents a model (SLEUTH*) for projecting contrasting urban growth futures. It is derived from the SLEUTH model, which has been modified in order to incorporate an additional spatially explicit factor, and to be used in a fully controlled forecasting mode. Our aim is to spatially allocate...

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Autores principales:	Thomas Houet, Rahim Aguejdad, Omar Doukari, Guillaume Battaia, Keith Clarke
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	DE EN FR IT PT
Publicado:	Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités 2016
Materias:	land use land cover model trajectories scenario trends vs. contrasting futures Geography (General) G1-922
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a79f655efdb9487b839a0bc83ef89be1
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:a79f655efdb9487b839a0bc83ef89be1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a79f655efdb9487b839a0bc83ef89be12021-12-02T11:13:24ZDescription and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures1278-336610.4000/cybergeo.27397https://doaj.org/article/a79f655efdb9487b839a0bc83ef89be12016-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/27397https://doaj.org/toc/1278-3366This paper presents a model (SLEUTH) for projecting contrasting urban growth futures. It is derived from the SLEUTH model, which has been modified in order to incorporate an additional spatially explicit factor, and to be used in a fully controlled forecasting mode. Our aim is to spatially allocate urban growth, its amount and pattern, according to predefined prospective scenarios and assuming a non path-dependency approach. This modelling approach aims at being used under a "story and simulation" (SAS) approach, which constrains the model validation. To assess model efficiency, three types of tests have been undertaken: (1) sensitivity tests; (2) reproduction of known changes over a past period; and (3) simulation of changes that break trends. Results show that SLEUTH conveniently simulates expected urban changes for exploring contrasting scenarios that are the basis for land planning strategies.Thomas HouetRahim AguejdadOmar DoukariGuillaume BattaiaKeith ClarkeUnité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-citésarticleland useland covermodeltrajectoriesscenariotrends vs. contrasting futuresGeography (General)G1-922DEENFRITPTCybergeo (2016)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	DE EN FR IT PT
topic	land use land cover model trajectories scenario trends vs. contrasting futures Geography (General) G1-922
spellingShingle	land use land cover model trajectories scenario trends vs. contrasting futures Geography (General) G1-922 Thomas Houet Rahim Aguejdad Omar Doukari Guillaume Battaia Keith Clarke Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
description	This paper presents a model (SLEUTH) for projecting contrasting urban growth futures. It is derived from the SLEUTH model, which has been modified in order to incorporate an additional spatially explicit factor, and to be used in a fully controlled forecasting mode. Our aim is to spatially allocate urban growth, its amount and pattern, according to predefined prospective scenarios and assuming a non path-dependency approach. This modelling approach aims at being used under a "story and simulation" (SAS) approach, which constrains the model validation. To assess model efficiency, three types of tests have been undertaken: (1) sensitivity tests; (2) reproduction of known changes over a past period; and (3) simulation of changes that break trends. Results show that SLEUTH conveniently simulates expected urban changes for exploring contrasting scenarios that are the basis for land planning strategies.
format	article
author	Thomas Houet Rahim Aguejdad Omar Doukari Guillaume Battaia Keith Clarke
author_facet	Thomas Houet Rahim Aguejdad Omar Doukari Guillaume Battaia Keith Clarke
author_sort	Thomas Houet
title	Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
title_short	Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
title_full	Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
title_fullStr	Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
title_full_unstemmed	Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
title_sort	description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
publisher	Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités
publishDate	2016
url	https://doaj.org/article/a79f655efdb9487b839a0bc83ef89be1
work_keys_str_mv	AT thomashouet descriptionandvalidationofanonpathdependentmodelforprojectingcontrastingurbangrowthfutures AT rahimaguejdad descriptionandvalidationofanonpathdependentmodelforprojectingcontrastingurbangrowthfutures AT omardoukari descriptionandvalidationofanonpathdependentmodelforprojectingcontrastingurbangrowthfutures AT guillaumebattaia descriptionandvalidationofanonpathdependentmodelforprojectingcontrastingurbangrowthfutures AT keithclarke descriptionandvalidationofanonpathdependentmodelforprojectingcontrastingurbangrowthfutures
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Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures

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