Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India

Abstract Flash droughts cause rapid depletion in root-zone soil moisture and severely affect crop health and irrigation water demands. However, their occurrence and impacts in the current and future climate in India remain unknown. Here we use observations and model simulations from the large ensemb...

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Autores principales:	Vimal Mishra, Saran Aadhar, Shanti Shwarup Mahto
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a7ca99ed324b4b179a7ef8f1c9803450
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a7ca99ed324b4b179a7ef8f1c98034502021-12-02T15:59:41ZAnthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India10.1038/s41612-020-00158-32397-3722https://doaj.org/article/a7ca99ed324b4b179a7ef8f1c98034502021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00158-3https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Flash droughts cause rapid depletion in root-zone soil moisture and severely affect crop health and irrigation water demands. However, their occurrence and impacts in the current and future climate in India remain unknown. Here we use observations and model simulations from the large ensemble of Community Earth System Model to quantify the risk of flash droughts in India. Root-zone soil moisture simulations conducted using Variable Infiltration Capacity model show that flash droughts predominantly occur during the summer monsoon season (June–September) and driven by the intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall. Positive temperature anomalies during the monsoon break rapidly deplete soil moisture, which is further exacerbated by the land-atmospheric feedback. The worst flash drought in the observed (1951–2016) climate occurred in 1979, affecting more than 40% of the country. The frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes is projected to rise by about five-fold, causing approximately seven-fold increase in flash droughts like 1979 by the end of the 21st century. The increased risk of flash droughts in the future is attributed to intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon rainfall and anthropogenic warming, which can have deleterious implications for crop production, irrigation demands, and groundwater abstraction in India.Vimal MishraSaran AadharShanti Shwarup MahtoNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Vimal Mishra Saran Aadhar Shanti Shwarup Mahto Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
description	Abstract Flash droughts cause rapid depletion in root-zone soil moisture and severely affect crop health and irrigation water demands. However, their occurrence and impacts in the current and future climate in India remain unknown. Here we use observations and model simulations from the large ensemble of Community Earth System Model to quantify the risk of flash droughts in India. Root-zone soil moisture simulations conducted using Variable Infiltration Capacity model show that flash droughts predominantly occur during the summer monsoon season (June–September) and driven by the intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall. Positive temperature anomalies during the monsoon break rapidly deplete soil moisture, which is further exacerbated by the land-atmospheric feedback. The worst flash drought in the observed (1951–2016) climate occurred in 1979, affecting more than 40% of the country. The frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes is projected to rise by about five-fold, causing approximately seven-fold increase in flash droughts like 1979 by the end of the 21st century. The increased risk of flash droughts in the future is attributed to intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon rainfall and anthropogenic warming, which can have deleterious implications for crop production, irrigation demands, and groundwater abstraction in India.
format	article
author	Vimal Mishra Saran Aadhar Shanti Shwarup Mahto
author_facet	Vimal Mishra Saran Aadhar Shanti Shwarup Mahto
author_sort	Vimal Mishra
title	Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
title_short	Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
title_full	Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
title_fullStr	Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
title_full_unstemmed	Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
title_sort	anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in india
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a7ca99ed324b4b179a7ef8f1c9803450
work_keys_str_mv	AT vimalmishra anthropogenicwarmingandintraseasonalsummermonsoonvariabilityamplifytheriskoffutureflashdroughtsinindia AT saranaadhar anthropogenicwarmingandintraseasonalsummermonsoonvariabilityamplifytheriskoffutureflashdroughtsinindia AT shantishwarupmahto anthropogenicwarmingandintraseasonalsummermonsoonvariabilityamplifytheriskoffutureflashdroughtsinindia
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Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India

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