GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change

The study of the distribution of protected animal species in Europe is especially relevant in a changing climate. Therefore, in this work, we tried to solve the problem of the possibility of habitation of turtles Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni in Eastern Europe by using species distribution mod...

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Autores principales:	O. Nekrasova, V. Tytar, M. Pupins, A. Čeirāns, A. Skute
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Publishing House "Akademperiodyka" 2021
Materias:	ecological niche model distribution turtle climate change expansion Zoology QL1-991
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a7d1507079254edc91a7b2f656a5d27a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a7d1507079254edc91a7b2f656a5d27a2021-11-22T15:03:00ZGIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change2707-725X2707-726810.15407/zoo2021.05.387https://doaj.org/article/a7d1507079254edc91a7b2f656a5d27a2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://ojs.akademperiodyka.org.ua/index.php/Zoodiversity/article/view/258https://doaj.org/toc/2707-725Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2707-7268The study of the distribution of protected animal species in Europe is especially relevant in a changing climate. Therefore, in this work, we tried to solve the problem of the possibility of habitation of turtles Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni in Eastern Europe by using species distribution models (SDMs). We used bioclimatic variables from the CliMond dataset (18 uncorrelated variables of 35) and 19 paleoclim variables of the “early-Holocene”. Packages Maxent package and 'ntbox' were employed. In addition to our data, we used findings listed in the GBIF databases: 1935 points for T. graeca and 991 points for T. hermanni. It has been shown that subspecies of turtles differ in the characteristics of the ecological niche. In addition to direct anthropogenic influences, the limiting factor is the “Mean temperature of coldest quarter” (bio11) for both species. Moreover, T. graeca is less demanding and can tolerate both frost and higher temperatures during drier periods than T. hermanni. Thus, T. graeca (90%, bio11) – from -2 to +14 °C (limits from -6 and +17 °C), mean consisting +7 °C, and T. hermanni (90%) from -1 to +11 °C (limits between -3 and +12 °C), mean consisting +6 °C (DivaGis). Modeling found that in the future it is possible for these species to move in a north-eastern direction, where potentially suitable habitats will appear: by 2090 in the South of Ukraine (Odessa region, Crimea) and East Ukraine (floodplain of the Seversky Donets River of the Don basin).O. NekrasovaV. TytarM. PupinsA. ČeirānsA. SkutePublishing House "Akademperiodyka"articleecological niche modeldistributionturtleclimate changeexpansionZoologyQL1-991ENZoodiversity, Vol 55, Iss 5 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	ecological niche model distribution turtle climate change expansion Zoology QL1-991
spellingShingle	ecological niche model distribution turtle climate change expansion Zoology QL1-991 O. Nekrasova V. Tytar M. Pupins A. Čeirāns A. Skute GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change
description	The study of the distribution of protected animal species in Europe is especially relevant in a changing climate. Therefore, in this work, we tried to solve the problem of the possibility of habitation of turtles Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni in Eastern Europe by using species distribution models (SDMs). We used bioclimatic variables from the CliMond dataset (18 uncorrelated variables of 35) and 19 paleoclim variables of the “early-Holocene”. Packages Maxent package and 'ntbox' were employed. In addition to our data, we used findings listed in the GBIF databases: 1935 points for T. graeca and 991 points for T. hermanni. It has been shown that subspecies of turtles differ in the characteristics of the ecological niche. In addition to direct anthropogenic influences, the limiting factor is the “Mean temperature of coldest quarter” (bio11) for both species. Moreover, T. graeca is less demanding and can tolerate both frost and higher temperatures during drier periods than T. hermanni. Thus, T. graeca (90%, bio11) – from -2 to +14 °C (limits from -6 and +17 °C), mean consisting +7 °C, and T. hermanni (90%) from -1 to +11 °C (limits between -3 and +12 °C), mean consisting +6 °C (DivaGis). Modeling found that in the future it is possible for these species to move in a north-eastern direction, where potentially suitable habitats will appear: by 2090 in the South of Ukraine (Odessa region, Crimea) and East Ukraine (floodplain of the Seversky Donets River of the Don basin).
format	article
author	O. Nekrasova V. Tytar M. Pupins A. Čeirāns A. Skute
author_facet	O. Nekrasova V. Tytar M. Pupins A. Čeirāns A. Skute
author_sort	O. Nekrasova
title	GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change
title_short	GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change
title_full	GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change
title_fullStr	GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed	GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change
title_sort	gis modelling of the distribution of terrestrial tortoise species: testudo graeca and testudo hermanni (testudines, testudinidae) of eastern europe in the context of climate change
publisher	Publishing House "Akademperiodyka"
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a7d1507079254edc91a7b2f656a5d27a
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GIS Modelling of the Distribution of Terrestrial Tortoise Species: Testudo graeca and Testudo hermanni (Testudines, Testudinidae) of Eastern Europe in the Context of Climate Change

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