Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.

Understanding the spread of infectious diseases is an extremely essential step to preventing them. Thus, correct modeling and simulation approaches are critical for elucidating the transmission of infectious diseases and improving the control of epidemics. The primary objective of this study is to s...

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Autores principales:	Jibiao Zhou, Sheng Dong, Changxi Ma, Yao Wu, Xiao Qiu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a7f634fb5e2a434baee6ac8544332b0d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a7f634fb5e2a434baee6ac8544332b0d2021-12-02T20:10:30ZEpidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0253220https://doaj.org/article/a7f634fb5e2a434baee6ac8544332b0d2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253220https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Understanding the spread of infectious diseases is an extremely essential step to preventing them. Thus, correct modeling and simulation approaches are critical for elucidating the transmission of infectious diseases and improving the control of epidemics. The primary objective of this study is to simulate the spread of communicable diseases in an urban rail transit station. Data were collected by a field investigation in the city of Ningbo, China. A SEIR-based model was developed to simulate the spread of infectious diseases in Tianyi station, considering four groups of passengers (susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered) and a 14-day incubation period. Based on the historical data of infectious diseases, the parameters of the SEIR infectious disease model were clarified, and a sensitivity analysis of the parameters was also performed. The results showed that the contact rate (CR), infectivity (I), and average illness duration (AID) were positively correlated with the number of infections. It was also found that the length of the average incubation time (AIT) was positively correlated with the number of exposed individuals and negatively correlated with the number of infectors. These simulation results provide support for the validity and reliability of using the SEIR model in studies of the spread of epidemics and facilitate the development of effective measures to prevent and control an epidemic.Jibiao ZhouSheng DongChangxi MaYao WuXiao QiuPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0253220 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jibiao Zhou Sheng Dong Changxi Ma Yao Wu Xiao Qiu Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.
description	Understanding the spread of infectious diseases is an extremely essential step to preventing them. Thus, correct modeling and simulation approaches are critical for elucidating the transmission of infectious diseases and improving the control of epidemics. The primary objective of this study is to simulate the spread of communicable diseases in an urban rail transit station. Data were collected by a field investigation in the city of Ningbo, China. A SEIR-based model was developed to simulate the spread of infectious diseases in Tianyi station, considering four groups of passengers (susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered) and a 14-day incubation period. Based on the historical data of infectious diseases, the parameters of the SEIR infectious disease model were clarified, and a sensitivity analysis of the parameters was also performed. The results showed that the contact rate (CR), infectivity (I), and average illness duration (AID) were positively correlated with the number of infections. It was also found that the length of the average incubation time (AIT) was positively correlated with the number of exposed individuals and negatively correlated with the number of infectors. These simulation results provide support for the validity and reliability of using the SEIR model in studies of the spread of epidemics and facilitate the development of effective measures to prevent and control an epidemic.
format	article
author	Jibiao Zhou Sheng Dong Changxi Ma Yao Wu Xiao Qiu
author_facet	Jibiao Zhou Sheng Dong Changxi Ma Yao Wu Xiao Qiu
author_sort	Jibiao Zhou
title	Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.
title_short	Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.
title_full	Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.
title_fullStr	Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.
title_full_unstemmed	Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.
title_sort	epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a seir-based model.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a7f634fb5e2a434baee6ac8544332b0d
work_keys_str_mv	AT jibiaozhou epidemicspreadsimulationinanareawithahighdensitycrowdusingaseirbasedmodel AT shengdong epidemicspreadsimulationinanareawithahighdensitycrowdusingaseirbasedmodel AT changxima epidemicspreadsimulationinanareawithahighdensitycrowdusingaseirbasedmodel AT yaowu epidemicspreadsimulationinanareawithahighdensitycrowdusingaseirbasedmodel AT xiaoqiu epidemicspreadsimulationinanareawithahighdensitycrowdusingaseirbasedmodel
_version_	1718375017937371136

Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.

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