Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in per-recruit analysis for small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) fisheries in China, in which credible estimates of life history parameters from Bayesian inference were used to generate the distribution for a quantity of interest....

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Autores principales:	Lixin Zhu, Changzi Ge, Zhaoyang Jiang, Chunli Liu, Gang Hou, Zhenlin Liang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	yield-per-recruit model spawning stock biomass-per-recruit model uncertainty Bayesian inference small yellow croaker Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a7fcf2b338394d1ea455d43c6fc0266a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a7fcf2b338394d1ea455d43c6fc0266a2021-12-01T16:50:17ZStock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference2296-774510.3389/fmars.2021.652293https://doaj.org/article/a7fcf2b338394d1ea455d43c6fc0266a2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.652293/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in per-recruit analysis for small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) fisheries in China, in which credible estimates of life history parameters from Bayesian inference were used to generate the distribution for a quantity of interest. Small yellow croakers were divided into five spatial groups. The status of each group was examined using a yield-per-recruit (YPR) model and a spawning stock biomass-per-recruit (SSBPR) model. The optimal length at first capture (Lcopt) was proposed to recover the biomass. The maximum observed age in the current stocks (3 years) and the maximum recorded age (≥20 years) were adopted in per-recruit analysis. Our results suggest that the framework can quantify uncertainty well in the output of per-recruit analysis for small yellow croaker. It is suited to other fish species. The SSBPR at FMSY (SSBPRMSY) is a better benchmark than the spawning potential ratio (SPR) at FMSY because SSBPRMSY had a unimodal distribution. The SSBPR analysis can lead to a more conservative Lcopt than the YPR analysis. The key factor influencing the assessment conclusions may be the growth parameters rather than the natural mortality rate for a stock with a younger maximum age. Overfishing likely occurred for all groups and recruitment overfishing may not occur if the maximum age is maintained at 3 years. Increasing lengths at first capture to the recommended values can help this population recover. However, Fcur is too high for small yellow croakers to attain the maximum recorded age. Both reducing fishing mortality rate and increasing length at first capture are needed to attain the maximum recorded age.Lixin ZhuChangzi GeZhaoyang JiangChunli LiuGang HouZhenlin LiangFrontiers Media S.A.articleyield-per-recruit modelspawning stock biomass-per-recruit modeluncertaintyBayesian inferencesmall yellow croakerScienceQGeneral. Including nature conservation, geographical distributionQH1-199.5ENFrontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	yield-per-recruit model spawning stock biomass-per-recruit model uncertainty Bayesian inference small yellow croaker Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
spellingShingle	yield-per-recruit model spawning stock biomass-per-recruit model uncertainty Bayesian inference small yellow croaker Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Lixin Zhu Changzi Ge Zhaoyang Jiang Chunli Liu Gang Hou Zhenlin Liang Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference
description	This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in per-recruit analysis for small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) fisheries in China, in which credible estimates of life history parameters from Bayesian inference were used to generate the distribution for a quantity of interest. Small yellow croakers were divided into five spatial groups. The status of each group was examined using a yield-per-recruit (YPR) model and a spawning stock biomass-per-recruit (SSBPR) model. The optimal length at first capture (Lcopt) was proposed to recover the biomass. The maximum observed age in the current stocks (3 years) and the maximum recorded age (≥20 years) were adopted in per-recruit analysis. Our results suggest that the framework can quantify uncertainty well in the output of per-recruit analysis for small yellow croaker. It is suited to other fish species. The SSBPR at FMSY (SSBPRMSY) is a better benchmark than the spawning potential ratio (SPR) at FMSY because SSBPRMSY had a unimodal distribution. The SSBPR analysis can lead to a more conservative Lcopt than the YPR analysis. The key factor influencing the assessment conclusions may be the growth parameters rather than the natural mortality rate for a stock with a younger maximum age. Overfishing likely occurred for all groups and recruitment overfishing may not occur if the maximum age is maintained at 3 years. Increasing lengths at first capture to the recommended values can help this population recover. However, Fcur is too high for small yellow croakers to attain the maximum recorded age. Both reducing fishing mortality rate and increasing length at first capture are needed to attain the maximum recorded age.
format	article
author	Lixin Zhu Changzi Ge Zhaoyang Jiang Chunli Liu Gang Hou Zhenlin Liang
author_facet	Lixin Zhu Changzi Ge Zhaoyang Jiang Chunli Liu Gang Hou Zhenlin Liang
author_sort	Lixin Zhu
title	Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference
title_short	Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference
title_full	Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference
title_fullStr	Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference
title_full_unstemmed	Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference
title_sort	stock assessment of small yellow croaker (larimichthys polyactis) off the coast of china using per-recruit analysis based on bayesian inference
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a7fcf2b338394d1ea455d43c6fc0266a
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Stock Assessment of Small Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Off the Coast of China Using Per-Recruit Analysis Based on Bayesian Inference

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