Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility

Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility

Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of developme...

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Autores principales: Haamed Al Hassan, MB BCh, Eve Cocks, DN, Lara Jesani, MB BCh, Sally Lewis, MRCGP, Tamas Szakmany, MD, PhD, on behalf of the Gwent COVID-19 Group, A. Allen-Ridge, E. Baker, C. Bailey, T. Baumer, S. Beckett, S. Champanerkar, Y. Cheema, S. Cherian, E. Cocks, S. Cutler, E. Dawe, A. Dhadda, S. Dumont, N. Duric, S. Elgarf, T. Evans, E. Godfrey, L. Harding, D. Hepburn, A. E. Heron, L. Jesani, P. Jones, C. Killick, C. King, A. Kiss, J. Lavers, J. Lloyd-Evans, N. Mason, L. McClelland, B. Muthuswamy, J. Parry-Jones, E. Phillips, S. Pooley, B. Radford, O. Richards, A. Rimmer, G. Roberts, A. Roynon-Reed, A. Sieunarine, K. Sullivan, T. Szakmany, C. Thomas, E. Thomas, J. Tozer, T. West, M. Winstanley
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Wolters Kluwer 2020
Materias:
Medical emergencies. Critical care. Intensive care. First aid
RC86-88.9
Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/a8aac6d750354c48bb0c861f989bca7e
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:a8aac6d750354c48bb0c861f989bca7e2021-11-25T07:52:32ZClinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility2639-802810.1097/CCE.0000000000000253https://doaj.org/article/a8aac6d750354c48bb0c861f989bca7e2020-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://journals.lww.com/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253https://doaj.org/toc/2639-8028Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714).Haamed Al Hassan, MB BChEve Cocks, DNLara Jesani, MB BChSally Lewis, MRCGPTamas Szakmany, MD, PhDon behalf of the Gwent COVID-19 GroupA. Allen-RidgeE. BakerC. BaileyT. BaumerS. BeckettS. ChampanerkarY. CheemaS. CherianE. CocksS. CutlerE. DaweA. DhaddaS. DumontN. DuricS. ElgarfT. EvansE. GodfreyL. HardingD. HepburnA. E. HeronL. JesaniP. JonesC. KillickC. KingA. KissJ. LaversJ. Lloyd-EvansN. MasonL. McClellandB. MuthuswamyJ. Parry-JonesE. PhillipsS. PooleyB. RadfordO. RichardsA. RimmerG. RobertsA. Roynon-ReedA. SieunarineK. SullivanT. SzakmanyC. ThomasE. ThomasJ. TozerT. WestM. WinstanleyWolters KluwerarticleMedical emergencies. Critical care. Intensive care. First aidRC86-88.9ENCritical Care Explorations, Vol 2, Iss 10, p e0253 (2020)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medical emergencies. Critical care. Intensive care. First aid
RC86-88.9
spellingShingle Medical emergencies. Critical care. Intensive care. First aid
RC86-88.9
Haamed Al Hassan, MB BCh
Eve Cocks, DN
Lara Jesani, MB BCh
Sally Lewis, MRCGP
Tamas Szakmany, MD, PhD
on behalf of the Gwent COVID-19 Group
A. Allen-Ridge
E. Baker
C. Bailey
T. Baumer
S. Beckett
S. Champanerkar
Y. Cheema
S. Cherian
E. Cocks
S. Cutler
E. Dawe
A. Dhadda
S. Dumont
N. Duric
S. Elgarf
T. Evans
E. Godfrey
L. Harding
D. Hepburn
A. E. Heron
L. Jesani
P. Jones
C. Killick
C. King
A. Kiss
J. Lavers
J. Lloyd-Evans
N. Mason
L. McClelland
B. Muthuswamy
J. Parry-Jones
E. Phillips
S. Pooley
B. Radford
O. Richards
A. Rimmer
G. Roberts
A. Roynon-Reed
A. Sieunarine
K. Sullivan
T. Szakmany
C. Thomas
E. Thomas
J. Tozer
T. West
M. Winstanley
Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
description Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714).
format article
author Haamed Al Hassan, MB BCh
Eve Cocks, DN
Lara Jesani, MB BCh
Sally Lewis, MRCGP
Tamas Szakmany, MD, PhD
on behalf of the Gwent COVID-19 Group
A. Allen-Ridge
E. Baker
C. Bailey
T. Baumer
S. Beckett
S. Champanerkar
Y. Cheema
S. Cherian
E. Cocks
S. Cutler
E. Dawe
A. Dhadda
S. Dumont
N. Duric
S. Elgarf
T. Evans
E. Godfrey
L. Harding
D. Hepburn
A. E. Heron
L. Jesani
P. Jones
C. Killick
C. King
A. Kiss
J. Lavers
J. Lloyd-Evans
N. Mason
L. McClelland
B. Muthuswamy
J. Parry-Jones
E. Phillips
S. Pooley
B. Radford
O. Richards
A. Rimmer
G. Roberts
A. Roynon-Reed
A. Sieunarine
K. Sullivan
T. Szakmany
C. Thomas
E. Thomas
J. Tozer
T. West
M. Winstanley
author_facet Haamed Al Hassan, MB BCh
Eve Cocks, DN
Lara Jesani, MB BCh
Sally Lewis, MRCGP
Tamas Szakmany, MD, PhD
on behalf of the Gwent COVID-19 Group
A. Allen-Ridge
E. Baker
C. Bailey
T. Baumer
S. Beckett
S. Champanerkar
Y. Cheema
S. Cherian
E. Cocks
S. Cutler
E. Dawe
A. Dhadda
S. Dumont
N. Duric
S. Elgarf
T. Evans
E. Godfrey
L. Harding
D. Hepburn
A. E. Heron
L. Jesani
P. Jones
C. Killick
C. King
A. Kiss
J. Lavers
J. Lloyd-Evans
N. Mason
L. McClelland
B. Muthuswamy
J. Parry-Jones
E. Phillips
S. Pooley
B. Radford
O. Richards
A. Rimmer
G. Roberts
A. Roynon-Reed
A. Sieunarine
K. Sullivan
T. Szakmany
C. Thomas
E. Thomas
J. Tozer
T. West
M. Winstanley
author_sort Haamed Al Hassan, MB BCh
title Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_short Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_full Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_fullStr Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_full_unstemmed Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_sort clinical risk prediction scores in coronavirus disease 2019: beware of low validity and clinical utility
publisher Wolters Kluwer
publishDate 2020
url https://doaj.org/article/a8aac6d750354c48bb0c861f989bca7e
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