The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.

<h4>Background/objectives</h4>The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Mercy Manyema, Lennert J Veerman, Lumbwe Chola, Aviva Tugendhaft, Benn Sartorius, Demetre Labadarios, Karen J Hofman
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a92145427d974d3a997245324d138fa9
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:a92145427d974d3a997245324d138fa9
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a92145427d974d3a997245324d138fa92021-11-25T06:04:10ZThe potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0105287https://doaj.org/article/a92145427d974d3a997245324d138fa92014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/25136987/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background/objectives</h4>The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations.<h4>Results</h4>A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36 kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68 kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%-7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%-4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197-411 759).<h4>Conclusions</h4>Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.Mercy ManyemaLennert J VeermanLumbwe CholaAviva TugendhaftBenn SartoriusDemetre LabadariosKaren J HofmanPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 8, p e105287 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mercy Manyema Lennert J Veerman Lumbwe Chola Aviva Tugendhaft Benn Sartorius Demetre Labadarios Karen J Hofman The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.
description	<h4>Background/objectives</h4>The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations.<h4>Results</h4>A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36 kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68 kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%-7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%-4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197-411 759).<h4>Conclusions</h4>Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.
format	article
author	Mercy Manyema Lennert J Veerman Lumbwe Chola Aviva Tugendhaft Benn Sartorius Demetre Labadarios Karen J Hofman
author_facet	Mercy Manyema Lennert J Veerman Lumbwe Chola Aviva Tugendhaft Benn Sartorius Demetre Labadarios Karen J Hofman
author_sort	Mercy Manyema
title	The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.
title_short	The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.
title_full	The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.
title_fullStr	The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.
title_full_unstemmed	The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.
title_sort	potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in south african adults: a mathematical model.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/a92145427d974d3a997245324d138fa9
work_keys_str_mv	AT mercymanyema thepotentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT lennertjveerman thepotentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT lumbwechola thepotentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT avivatugendhaft thepotentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT bennsartorius thepotentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT demetrelabadarios thepotentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT karenjhofman thepotentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT mercymanyema potentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT lennertjveerman potentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT lumbwechola potentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT avivatugendhaft potentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT bennsartorius potentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT demetrelabadarios potentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel AT karenjhofman potentialimpactofa20taxonsugarsweetenedbeveragesonobesityinsouthafricanadultsamathematicalmodel
_version_	1718414238846812160

The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.

Ejemplares similares