Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections

Abstract Environmental and ecosystem models can help to guide management of changing natural systems by projecting alternative future states under a common set of scenarios. Combining contrasting models into multi-model ensembles (MMEs) can improve the skill and reliability of projections, but assoc...

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Autores principales:	Hayley J. Bannister, Paul G. Blackwell, Kieran Hyder, Thomas J. Webb
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a9327b146dd6418db9e72bb5ceee4129
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a9327b146dd6418db9e72bb5ceee41292021-12-02T17:37:28ZImproving the visual communication of environmental model projections10.1038/s41598-021-98290-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a9327b146dd6418db9e72bb5ceee41292021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98290-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Environmental and ecosystem models can help to guide management of changing natural systems by projecting alternative future states under a common set of scenarios. Combining contrasting models into multi-model ensembles (MMEs) can improve the skill and reliability of projections, but associated uncertainty complicates communication of outputs, affecting both the effectiveness of management decisions and, sometimes, public trust in scientific evidence itself. Effective data visualisation can play a key role in accurately communicating such complex outcomes, but we lack an evidence base to enable us to design them to be visually appealing whilst also effectively communicating accurate information. To address this, we conducted a survey to identify the most effective methods for visually communicating the outputs of an ensemble of global climate models. We measured the accuracy, confidence, and ease with which the survey participants were able to interpret 10 visualisations depicting the same set of model outputs in different ways, as well as their preferences. Dot and box plots outperformed all other visualisations, heat maps and radar plots were comparatively ineffective, while our infographic scored highly for visual appeal but lacked information necessary for accurate interpretation. We provide a set of guidelines for visually communicating the outputs of MMEs across a wide range of research areas, aimed at maximising the impact of the visualisations, whilst minimizing the potential for misinterpretations, increasing the societal impact of the models and ensuring they are well-placed to support management in the future.Hayley J. BannisterPaul G. BlackwellKieran HyderThomas J. WebbNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Hayley J. Bannister Paul G. Blackwell Kieran Hyder Thomas J. Webb Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections
description	Abstract Environmental and ecosystem models can help to guide management of changing natural systems by projecting alternative future states under a common set of scenarios. Combining contrasting models into multi-model ensembles (MMEs) can improve the skill and reliability of projections, but associated uncertainty complicates communication of outputs, affecting both the effectiveness of management decisions and, sometimes, public trust in scientific evidence itself. Effective data visualisation can play a key role in accurately communicating such complex outcomes, but we lack an evidence base to enable us to design them to be visually appealing whilst also effectively communicating accurate information. To address this, we conducted a survey to identify the most effective methods for visually communicating the outputs of an ensemble of global climate models. We measured the accuracy, confidence, and ease with which the survey participants were able to interpret 10 visualisations depicting the same set of model outputs in different ways, as well as their preferences. Dot and box plots outperformed all other visualisations, heat maps and radar plots were comparatively ineffective, while our infographic scored highly for visual appeal but lacked information necessary for accurate interpretation. We provide a set of guidelines for visually communicating the outputs of MMEs across a wide range of research areas, aimed at maximising the impact of the visualisations, whilst minimizing the potential for misinterpretations, increasing the societal impact of the models and ensuring they are well-placed to support management in the future.
format	article
author	Hayley J. Bannister Paul G. Blackwell Kieran Hyder Thomas J. Webb
author_facet	Hayley J. Bannister Paul G. Blackwell Kieran Hyder Thomas J. Webb
author_sort	Hayley J. Bannister
title	Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections
title_short	Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections
title_full	Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections
title_fullStr	Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections
title_full_unstemmed	Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections
title_sort	improving the visual communication of environmental model projections
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a9327b146dd6418db9e72bb5ceee4129
work_keys_str_mv	AT hayleyjbannister improvingthevisualcommunicationofenvironmentalmodelprojections AT paulgblackwell improvingthevisualcommunicationofenvironmentalmodelprojections AT kieranhyder improvingthevisualcommunicationofenvironmentalmodelprojections AT thomasjwebb improvingthevisualcommunicationofenvironmentalmodelprojections
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Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections

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