The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area

Precipitation is a crucial component of the water cycle, and its unpredictability may dramatically influence agriculture, ecosystems, and water resource management. On the other hand, climate variability has caused water scarcity in many countries in recent years. Therefore, it is extremely importan...

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Autores principales:	Mohammed Achite, Gokmen Ceribasi, Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu, Andrzej Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	precipitation innovative polygon trend analysis arithmetic mean standard deviation Wadi Sly Algeria Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a94af0a8a2414764871afcd5921758df
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a94af0a8a2414764871afcd5921758df2021-11-25T19:03:12ZThe Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area10.3390/su1322126742071-1050https://doaj.org/article/a94af0a8a2414764871afcd5921758df2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/22/12674https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050Precipitation is a crucial component of the water cycle, and its unpredictability may dramatically influence agriculture, ecosystems, and water resource management. On the other hand, climate variability has caused water scarcity in many countries in recent years. Therefore, it is extremely important to analyze future changes of precipitation data in countries facing climate change. In this study, the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method was applied for precipitation trend detection at seven stations located in the Wadi Sly basin, in Algeria, during a 50-year period (1968–2018). In particular, the IPTA method was applied separately for both arithmetic mean and standard deviation. Additionally, results from the IPTA method were compared to the results of trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator. For the different stations, the first results showed that there is no regular polygon in the IPTA graphics, thus indicating that precipitation data varies by years. As an example, IPTA result plots of both the arithmetic mean and standard deviation data for the Saadia station consist of many polygons. This result means that the monthly total precipitation data is not constant and the data is unstable. In any case, the application of the IPTA method showed different trend behaviors, with a precipitation increase in some stations and decrease in others. This increasing and decreasing variability emerges from climate change. IPTA results point to a greater focus on flood risk management in severe seasons and drought risk management in transitional seasons across the Wadi Sly basin. When comparing the results of trend analysis from the IPTA method and the rest of the analyzed tests, good agreement was shown between all methods. This shows that the IPTA method can be used for preliminary analysis trends of monthly precipitation.Mohammed AchiteGokmen CeribasiAhmet Iyad CeyhunluAndrzej WałęgaTommaso CaloieroMDPI AGarticleprecipitationinnovative polygon trend analysisarithmetic meanstandard deviationWadi SlyAlgeriaEnvironmental effects of industries and plantsTD194-195Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENSustainability, Vol 13, Iss 12674, p 12674 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	precipitation innovative polygon trend analysis arithmetic mean standard deviation Wadi Sly Algeria Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	precipitation innovative polygon trend analysis arithmetic mean standard deviation Wadi Sly Algeria Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Mohammed Achite Gokmen Ceribasi Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu Andrzej Wałęga Tommaso Caloiero The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area
description	Precipitation is a crucial component of the water cycle, and its unpredictability may dramatically influence agriculture, ecosystems, and water resource management. On the other hand, climate variability has caused water scarcity in many countries in recent years. Therefore, it is extremely important to analyze future changes of precipitation data in countries facing climate change. In this study, the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method was applied for precipitation trend detection at seven stations located in the Wadi Sly basin, in Algeria, during a 50-year period (1968–2018). In particular, the IPTA method was applied separately for both arithmetic mean and standard deviation. Additionally, results from the IPTA method were compared to the results of trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator. For the different stations, the first results showed that there is no regular polygon in the IPTA graphics, thus indicating that precipitation data varies by years. As an example, IPTA result plots of both the arithmetic mean and standard deviation data for the Saadia station consist of many polygons. This result means that the monthly total precipitation data is not constant and the data is unstable. In any case, the application of the IPTA method showed different trend behaviors, with a precipitation increase in some stations and decrease in others. This increasing and decreasing variability emerges from climate change. IPTA results point to a greater focus on flood risk management in severe seasons and drought risk management in transitional seasons across the Wadi Sly basin. When comparing the results of trend analysis from the IPTA method and the rest of the analyzed tests, good agreement was shown between all methods. This shows that the IPTA method can be used for preliminary analysis trends of monthly precipitation.
format	article
author	Mohammed Achite Gokmen Ceribasi Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu Andrzej Wałęga Tommaso Caloiero
author_facet	Mohammed Achite Gokmen Ceribasi Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu Andrzej Wałęga Tommaso Caloiero
author_sort	Mohammed Achite
title	The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area
title_short	The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area
title_full	The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area
title_fullStr	The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area
title_full_unstemmed	The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area
title_sort	innovative polygon trend analysis (ipta) as a simple qualitative method to detect changes in environment—example detecting trends of the total monthly precipitation in semiarid area
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a94af0a8a2414764871afcd5921758df
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The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area

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