Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose

Abstract Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses a...

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Main Authors:	Moe Fujita, Tatsuhiko Sato, Susumu Saito, Yosuke Yamashiki
Format:	article
Language:	EN
Published:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Subjects:	Medicine R Science Q
Online Access:	https://doaj.org/article/abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af2021-12-02T16:38:24ZProbabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose10.1038/s41598-021-95235-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95235-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses and dose rates for eight flight routes during five ground level enhancements (GLE). A four-dimensional dose-rate database developed by the Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles, WASAVIES, was employed in the SEP dose evaluation. As for the cost estimation, we considered two countermeasures; one is the cancellation of the flight, and the other is the reduction of flight altitudes. Then, we estimated the annual occurrence frequency of significant GLE events that would bring the maximum flight route dose and dose rate over 1.0 mSv and 80 μSv/h, respectively, based on past records of GLE as well as historically large events observed by the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores. Our calculations suggest that GLE events of a magnitude sufficient to exceed the above dose and dose rate thresholds, requiring a change in flight conditions, occur once every 47 and 17 years, respectively, and their conservatively-estimated annual risks associated with the countermeasure costs are up to around 1.5 thousand USD in the cases of daily-operated long-distance flights.Moe FujitaTatsuhiko SatoSusumu SaitoYosuke YamashikiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Moe Fujita Tatsuhiko Sato Susumu Saito Yosuke Yamashiki Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
description	Abstract Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses and dose rates for eight flight routes during five ground level enhancements (GLE). A four-dimensional dose-rate database developed by the Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles, WASAVIES, was employed in the SEP dose evaluation. As for the cost estimation, we considered two countermeasures; one is the cancellation of the flight, and the other is the reduction of flight altitudes. Then, we estimated the annual occurrence frequency of significant GLE events that would bring the maximum flight route dose and dose rate over 1.0 mSv and 80 μSv/h, respectively, based on past records of GLE as well as historically large events observed by the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores. Our calculations suggest that GLE events of a magnitude sufficient to exceed the above dose and dose rate thresholds, requiring a change in flight conditions, occur once every 47 and 17 years, respectively, and their conservatively-estimated annual risks associated with the countermeasure costs are up to around 1.5 thousand USD in the cases of daily-operated long-distance flights.
format	article
author	Moe Fujita Tatsuhiko Sato Susumu Saito Yosuke Yamashiki
author_facet	Moe Fujita Tatsuhiko Sato Susumu Saito Yosuke Yamashiki
author_sort	Moe Fujita
title	Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_short	Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_full	Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_fullStr	Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_full_unstemmed	Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_sort	probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af
work_keys_str_mv	AT moefujita probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose AT tatsuhikosato probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose AT susumusaito probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose AT yosukeyamashiki probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose
_version_	1718383591552974848

Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose

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