Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose

Abstract Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses a...

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Main Authors: Moe Fujita, Tatsuhiko Sato, Susumu Saito, Yosuke Yamashiki
Format: article
Language:EN
Published: Nature Portfolio 2021
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Online Access:https://doaj.org/article/abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af2021-12-02T16:38:24ZProbabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose10.1038/s41598-021-95235-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95235-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses and dose rates for eight flight routes during five ground level enhancements (GLE). A four-dimensional dose-rate database developed by the Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles, WASAVIES, was employed in the SEP dose evaluation. As for the cost estimation, we considered two countermeasures; one is the cancellation of the flight, and the other is the reduction of flight altitudes. Then, we estimated the annual occurrence frequency of significant GLE events that would bring the maximum flight route dose and dose rate over 1.0 mSv and 80 μSv/h, respectively, based on past records of GLE as well as historically large events observed by the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores. Our calculations suggest that GLE events of a magnitude sufficient to exceed the above dose and dose rate thresholds, requiring a change in flight conditions, occur once every 47 and 17 years, respectively, and their conservatively-estimated annual risks associated with the countermeasure costs are up to around 1.5 thousand USD in the cases of daily-operated long-distance flights.Moe FujitaTatsuhiko SatoSusumu SaitoYosuke YamashikiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Moe Fujita
Tatsuhiko Sato
Susumu Saito
Yosuke Yamashiki
Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
description Abstract Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses and dose rates for eight flight routes during five ground level enhancements (GLE). A four-dimensional dose-rate database developed by the Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles, WASAVIES, was employed in the SEP dose evaluation. As for the cost estimation, we considered two countermeasures; one is the cancellation of the flight, and the other is the reduction of flight altitudes. Then, we estimated the annual occurrence frequency of significant GLE events that would bring the maximum flight route dose and dose rate over 1.0 mSv and 80 μSv/h, respectively, based on past records of GLE as well as historically large events observed by the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores. Our calculations suggest that GLE events of a magnitude sufficient to exceed the above dose and dose rate thresholds, requiring a change in flight conditions, occur once every 47 and 17 years, respectively, and their conservatively-estimated annual risks associated with the countermeasure costs are up to around 1.5 thousand USD in the cases of daily-operated long-distance flights.
format article
author Moe Fujita
Tatsuhiko Sato
Susumu Saito
Yosuke Yamashiki
author_facet Moe Fujita
Tatsuhiko Sato
Susumu Saito
Yosuke Yamashiki
author_sort Moe Fujita
title Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_short Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_full Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_fullStr Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
title_sort probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
publisher Nature Portfolio
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/abca8289a12942a1b1f654bc4f8335af
work_keys_str_mv AT moefujita probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose
AT tatsuhikosato probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose
AT susumusaito probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose
AT yosukeyamashiki probabilisticriskassessmentofsolarparticleeventsconsideringthecostofcountermeasurestoreducetheaviationradiationdose
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