Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data

Abstract The dynamic characterization of the COVID-19 outbreak is critical to implement effective actions for its control and eradication but the information available at a global scale is not sufficiently reliable to be used directly. Here, we develop a quantitative approach to reliably quantify it...

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Main Authors:	Jose M. G. Vilar, Leonor Saiz
Format:	article
Language:	EN
Published:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Subjects:	Medicine R Science Q
Online Access:	https://doaj.org/article/ac0984a696b64e4ea31d3b8130c6e41a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ac0984a696b64e4ea31d3b8130c6e41a2021-12-02T18:37:08ZReliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data10.1038/s41598-021-99273-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ac0984a696b64e4ea31d3b8130c6e41a2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99273-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The dynamic characterization of the COVID-19 outbreak is critical to implement effective actions for its control and eradication but the information available at a global scale is not sufficiently reliable to be used directly. Here, we develop a quantitative approach to reliably quantify its temporal evolution and controllability through the integration of multiple data sources, including death records, clinical parametrization of the disease, and demographic data, and we explicitly apply it to countries worldwide, covering 97.4% of the human population, and to states within the United States (US). The validation of the approach shows that it can accurately reproduce the available prevalence data and that it can precisely infer the timing of nonpharmaceutical interventions. The results of the analysis identified general patterns of recession, stabilization, and resurgence. The diversity of dynamic behaviors of the outbreak across countries is paralleled by those of states and territories in the US, converging to remarkably similar global states in both cases. Our results offer precise insights into the dynamics of the outbreak and an efficient avenue for the estimation of the prevalence rates over time.Jose M. G. VilarLeonor SaizNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jose M. G. Vilar Leonor Saiz Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data
description	Abstract The dynamic characterization of the COVID-19 outbreak is critical to implement effective actions for its control and eradication but the information available at a global scale is not sufficiently reliable to be used directly. Here, we develop a quantitative approach to reliably quantify its temporal evolution and controllability through the integration of multiple data sources, including death records, clinical parametrization of the disease, and demographic data, and we explicitly apply it to countries worldwide, covering 97.4% of the human population, and to states within the United States (US). The validation of the approach shows that it can accurately reproduce the available prevalence data and that it can precisely infer the timing of nonpharmaceutical interventions. The results of the analysis identified general patterns of recession, stabilization, and resurgence. The diversity of dynamic behaviors of the outbreak across countries is paralleled by those of states and territories in the US, converging to remarkably similar global states in both cases. Our results offer precise insights into the dynamics of the outbreak and an efficient avenue for the estimation of the prevalence rates over time.
format	article
author	Jose M. G. Vilar Leonor Saiz
author_facet	Jose M. G. Vilar Leonor Saiz
author_sort	Jose M. G. Vilar
title	Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data
title_short	Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data
title_full	Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data
title_fullStr	Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data
title_full_unstemmed	Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data
title_sort	reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the covid-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ac0984a696b64e4ea31d3b8130c6e41a
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Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data

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