Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model

Abstract Numerous systems in the climate sciences and elsewhere are excitable, exhibiting coexistence of and transitions between a basic and an excited state. We examine the role of tipping between two such states in an excitable low-order ocean model. Ensemble simulations are used to obtain the mod...

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Autores principales:	Stefano Pierini, Michael Ghil
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ac0ea384f32240468cdc4ac548260680
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ac0ea384f32240468cdc4ac5482606802021-12-02T15:49:50ZTipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model10.1038/s41598-021-90138-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ac0ea384f32240468cdc4ac5482606802021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90138-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Numerous systems in the climate sciences and elsewhere are excitable, exhibiting coexistence of and transitions between a basic and an excited state. We examine the role of tipping between two such states in an excitable low-order ocean model. Ensemble simulations are used to obtain the model’s pullback attractor (PBA) and its properties, as a function of a forcing parameter $$\gamma $$ γ and of the steepness $$\delta $$ δ of a climatological drift in the forcing. The tipping time $$t_{\mathrm{{tp}}}$$ t tp is defined as the time at which the transition to relaxation oscillations (ROs) arises: at constant forcing this occurs at $$\gamma =\gamma _{\mathrm{c}}$$ γ = γ c . As the steepness $$\delta $$ δ decreases, $$t_{\mathrm{{tp}}}$$ t tp is delayed and the corresponding forcing amplitude decreases, while remaining always above $$\gamma _{\mathrm{c}}$$ γ c . With periodic perturbations, that amplitude depends solely on $$\delta $$ δ over a significant range of parameters: this provides an example of rate-induced tipping in an excitable system. Nonlinear resonance occurs for periods comparable to the RO time scale. Coexisting PBAs and total independence from initial states are found for subsets of parameter space. In the broader context of climate dynamics, the parameter drift herein stands for the role of anthropogenic forcing.Stefano PieriniMichael GhilNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Stefano Pierini Michael Ghil Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model
description	Abstract Numerous systems in the climate sciences and elsewhere are excitable, exhibiting coexistence of and transitions between a basic and an excited state. We examine the role of tipping between two such states in an excitable low-order ocean model. Ensemble simulations are used to obtain the model’s pullback attractor (PBA) and its properties, as a function of a forcing parameter $$\gamma $$ γ and of the steepness $$\delta $$ δ of a climatological drift in the forcing. The tipping time $$t_{\mathrm{{tp}}}$$ t tp is defined as the time at which the transition to relaxation oscillations (ROs) arises: at constant forcing this occurs at $$\gamma =\gamma _{\mathrm{c}}$$ γ = γ c . As the steepness $$\delta $$ δ decreases, $$t_{\mathrm{{tp}}}$$ t tp is delayed and the corresponding forcing amplitude decreases, while remaining always above $$\gamma _{\mathrm{c}}$$ γ c . With periodic perturbations, that amplitude depends solely on $$\delta $$ δ over a significant range of parameters: this provides an example of rate-induced tipping in an excitable system. Nonlinear resonance occurs for periods comparable to the RO time scale. Coexisting PBAs and total independence from initial states are found for subsets of parameter space. In the broader context of climate dynamics, the parameter drift herein stands for the role of anthropogenic forcing.
format	article
author	Stefano Pierini Michael Ghil
author_facet	Stefano Pierini Michael Ghil
author_sort	Stefano Pierini
title	Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model
title_short	Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model
title_full	Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model
title_fullStr	Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model
title_full_unstemmed	Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model
title_sort	tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ac0ea384f32240468cdc4ac548260680
work_keys_str_mv	AT stefanopierini tippingpointsinducedbyparameterdriftinanexcitableoceanmodel AT michaelghil tippingpointsinducedbyparameterdriftinanexcitableoceanmodel
_version_	1718385711075295232

Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model

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