Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study

The impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage and paediatric tuberculosis (TB) mortality is still unknown. To fill this evidence-gap and guide mitigation measures, we estimated the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global BCG coverage and paediatric TB mortalit...

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Autores principales:	Nabila Shaikh, Puck T. Pelzer, Sanne M. Thysen, Partho Roy, Rebecca C. Harris, Richard G. White
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	BCG immunization mathematical model paediatric mortality COVID-19 tuberculosis Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ac8d28f8f93c481fa8463f1fc7f3db81
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:ac8d28f8f93c481fa8463f1fc7f3db81
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ac8d28f8f93c481fa8463f1fc7f3db812021-11-25T19:10:17ZImpact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study10.3390/vaccines91112282076-393Xhttps://doaj.org/article/ac8d28f8f93c481fa8463f1fc7f3db812021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/11/1228https://doaj.org/toc/2076-393XThe impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage and paediatric tuberculosis (TB) mortality is still unknown. To fill this evidence-gap and guide mitigation measures, we estimated the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global BCG coverage and paediatric TB mortality. First, we used data from multiple sources to estimate COVID-19-disrupted BCG vaccination coverage. Second, using a static mathematical model, we estimated the number of additional paediatric TB deaths in the first 15 years of life due to delayed/missed vaccinations in 14 scenarios—varying in duration of disruption, and magnitude and timing of catch-up. We estimated a 25% reduction in global BCG coverage within the disruption period. The best-case scenario (3-month disruption, 100% catch-up within 3 months) resulted in an additional 886 (0.5%) paediatric TB deaths, and the worst-case scenario (6-month disruption with no catch-up) resulted in an additional 33,074 (17%) deaths. The magnitude of catch-up was found to be the most influential variable in minimising excess paediatric TB mortality. Our results show that ensuring catch-up vaccination of missed children is a critical priority, and delivery of BCG alongside other routine vaccines may be a feasible way to achieve catch-up. Urgent action is required to support countries with recovering vaccination coverages to minimise paediatric deaths.Nabila ShaikhPuck T. PelzerSanne M. ThysenPartho RoyRebecca C. HarrisRichard G. WhiteMDPI AGarticleBCGimmunizationmathematical modelpaediatric mortalityCOVID-19tuberculosisMedicineRENVaccines, Vol 9, Iss 1228, p 1228 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	BCG immunization mathematical model paediatric mortality COVID-19 tuberculosis Medicine R
spellingShingle	BCG immunization mathematical model paediatric mortality COVID-19 tuberculosis Medicine R Nabila Shaikh Puck T. Pelzer Sanne M. Thysen Partho Roy Rebecca C. Harris Richard G. White Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study
description	The impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage and paediatric tuberculosis (TB) mortality is still unknown. To fill this evidence-gap and guide mitigation measures, we estimated the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global BCG coverage and paediatric TB mortality. First, we used data from multiple sources to estimate COVID-19-disrupted BCG vaccination coverage. Second, using a static mathematical model, we estimated the number of additional paediatric TB deaths in the first 15 years of life due to delayed/missed vaccinations in 14 scenarios—varying in duration of disruption, and magnitude and timing of catch-up. We estimated a 25% reduction in global BCG coverage within the disruption period. The best-case scenario (3-month disruption, 100% catch-up within 3 months) resulted in an additional 886 (0.5%) paediatric TB deaths, and the worst-case scenario (6-month disruption with no catch-up) resulted in an additional 33,074 (17%) deaths. The magnitude of catch-up was found to be the most influential variable in minimising excess paediatric TB mortality. Our results show that ensuring catch-up vaccination of missed children is a critical priority, and delivery of BCG alongside other routine vaccines may be a feasible way to achieve catch-up. Urgent action is required to support countries with recovering vaccination coverages to minimise paediatric deaths.
format	article
author	Nabila Shaikh Puck T. Pelzer Sanne M. Thysen Partho Roy Rebecca C. Harris Richard G. White
author_facet	Nabila Shaikh Puck T. Pelzer Sanne M. Thysen Partho Roy Rebecca C. Harris Richard G. White
author_sort	Nabila Shaikh
title	Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study
title_short	Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study
title_full	Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study
title_fullStr	Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study
title_sort	impact of covid-19 disruptions on global bcg coverage and paediatric tb mortality: a modelling study
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ac8d28f8f93c481fa8463f1fc7f3db81
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Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study

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