Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error

Abstract This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ)...

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Autores principales:	Seon Tae Kim, Hye-In Jeong, Fei-Fei Jin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/acb75e2a5480474cb374de6d5ab94aaf
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:acb75e2a5480474cb374de6d5ab94aaf2021-12-02T11:41:11ZMean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error10.1038/s41598-017-05221-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/acb75e2a5480474cb374de6d5ab94aaf2017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05221-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.Seon Tae KimHye-In JeongFei-Fei JinNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Seon Tae Kim Hye-In Jeong Fei-Fei Jin Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
description	Abstract This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.
format	article
author	Seon Tae Kim Hye-In Jeong Fei-Fei Jin
author_facet	Seon Tae Kim Hye-In Jeong Fei-Fei Jin
author_sort	Seon Tae Kim
title	Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
title_short	Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
title_full	Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
title_fullStr	Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
title_full_unstemmed	Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
title_sort	mean bias in seasonal forecast model and enso prediction error
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/acb75e2a5480474cb374de6d5ab94aaf
work_keys_str_mv	AT seontaekim meanbiasinseasonalforecastmodelandensopredictionerror AT hyeinjeong meanbiasinseasonalforecastmodelandensopredictionerror AT feifeijin meanbiasinseasonalforecastmodelandensopredictionerror
_version_	1718395478699147264

Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error

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