Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe

<p>Issuing skillful forecasts beyond the typical horizon of weather predictability remains a challenge actively addressed by the scientific community. This study evaluates winter subseasonal reforecasts delivered by the CNRM and ECMWF dynamical systems and identifies that the level of skill fo...

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Autores principales:	C. Ardilouze, D. Specq, L. Batté, C. Cassou
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/acdb75f48d734619bddf3e5b243f27d3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:acdb75f48d734619bddf3e5b243f27d32021-11-04T09:21:30ZFlow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe10.5194/wcd-2-1033-20212698-4016https://doaj.org/article/acdb75f48d734619bddf3e5b243f27d32021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/1033/2021/wcd-2-1033-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016<p>Issuing skillful forecasts beyond the typical horizon of weather predictability remains a challenge actively addressed by the scientific community. This study evaluates winter subseasonal reforecasts delivered by the CNRM and ECMWF dynamical systems and identifies that the level of skill for predicting temperature in Europe varies fairly consistently in both systems. In particular, forecasts initialized during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases tend to be more skillful over Europe at week 3 in both systems. Composite analyses performed in an atmospheric reanalysis, a long-term climate simulation and both forecast systems unveil very similar temperature and sea-level pressure patterns 3 weeks after NAO conditions. Furthermore, regressing these fields onto the 3-weeks-prior NAO index in a reanalysis shows consistent patterns over Europe but also other regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, thereby suggesting a lagged teleconnection, related to either the persistence or recurrence of the positive and negative phases of the NAO. This teleconnection, conditioned to the intensity of the initial NAO phase, is well captured by forecast systems. As a result, it is a key mechanism for determining a priori confidence in the skill of wintertime subseasonal forecasts over Europe as well as other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.</p>C. ArdilouzeD. SpecqL. BattéC. CassouCopernicus PublicationsarticleMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENWeather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 2, Pp 1033-1049 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 C. Ardilouze D. Specq L. Batté C. Cassou Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
description	<p>Issuing skillful forecasts beyond the typical horizon of weather predictability remains a challenge actively addressed by the scientific community. This study evaluates winter subseasonal reforecasts delivered by the CNRM and ECMWF dynamical systems and identifies that the level of skill for predicting temperature in Europe varies fairly consistently in both systems. In particular, forecasts initialized during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases tend to be more skillful over Europe at week 3 in both systems. Composite analyses performed in an atmospheric reanalysis, a long-term climate simulation and both forecast systems unveil very similar temperature and sea-level pressure patterns 3 weeks after NAO conditions. Furthermore, regressing these fields onto the 3-weeks-prior NAO index in a reanalysis shows consistent patterns over Europe but also other regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, thereby suggesting a lagged teleconnection, related to either the persistence or recurrence of the positive and negative phases of the NAO. This teleconnection, conditioned to the intensity of the initial NAO phase, is well captured by forecast systems. As a result, it is a key mechanism for determining a priori confidence in the skill of wintertime subseasonal forecasts over Europe as well as other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.</p>
format	article
author	C. Ardilouze D. Specq L. Batté C. Cassou
author_facet	C. Ardilouze D. Specq L. Batté C. Cassou
author_sort	C. Ardilouze
title	Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
title_short	Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
title_full	Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
title_fullStr	Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
title_full_unstemmed	Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
title_sort	flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over europe
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/acdb75f48d734619bddf3e5b243f27d3
work_keys_str_mv	AT cardilouze flowdependenceofwintertimesubseasonalpredictionskillovereurope AT dspecq flowdependenceofwintertimesubseasonalpredictionskillovereurope AT lbatte flowdependenceofwintertimesubseasonalpredictionskillovereurope AT ccassou flowdependenceofwintertimesubseasonalpredictionskillovereurope
_version_	1718444983014391808

Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe

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