Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models

The study focused on the Godavari River basin to understand the alteration in the drought phenomenon for future scenarios. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-3 is calculated from Climate Research Unit 4.03 precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures. The drought m...

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Autores principales:	Soumyashree Dixit, Syed Tayyaba, K. V. Jayakumar
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	cordex-sa k-means clustering rcp regional climate models (rcms) spei Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ad38b0e499e1431ba66cbb755028e4c0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ad38b0e499e1431ba66cbb755028e4c02021-11-09T23:59:50ZSpatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.093https://doaj.org/article/ad38b0e499e1431ba66cbb755028e4c02021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/7/3240https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The study focused on the Godavari River basin to understand the alteration in the drought phenomenon for future scenarios. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-3 is calculated from Climate Research Unit 4.03 precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures. The drought magnitude and characteristics are determined using SPEI, which considers both precipitation and temperature data as input variables. The Mann–Kendall trend analysis is performed to identify the trend associated with drought characteristics. The basin is divided into six homogeneous regions using K-means clustering algorithm. The reliability ensemble averaging method is used for ensemble averaging of regional climate models (RCMs). The drought frequency analysis is carried out using trivariate copula for reference and future time periods. Variations in the drought characteristics are observed in the future scenarios with respect to the reference period. The drought duration, severity and peak for different climate divisions showed an increasing trend in future time period, especially in the case of RCP8.5 scenarios. The return periods of future droughts based on weighted-average RCMs under the two scenarios showed the possibility of more frequent droughts in the future (2053–2099) than in the past (1971–2017). HIGHLIGHTS The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for historical and future periods is computed.; The SPEI is used to assess drought characteristics in the Godavari River basin.; The river basin is divided into six regions using K-means clustering algorithm.; The trend analysis is carried out using historical and future drought characteristics.; Future drought return periods are computed using trivariate copula.;Soumyashree DixitSyed TayyabaK. V. JayakumarIWA Publishingarticlecordex-sak-means clusteringrcpregional climate models (rcms)speiEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp 3240-3263 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	cordex-sa k-means clustering rcp regional climate models (rcms) spei Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	cordex-sa k-means clustering rcp regional climate models (rcms) spei Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Soumyashree Dixit Syed Tayyaba K. V. Jayakumar Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models
description	The study focused on the Godavari River basin to understand the alteration in the drought phenomenon for future scenarios. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-3 is calculated from Climate Research Unit 4.03 precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures. The drought magnitude and characteristics are determined using SPEI, which considers both precipitation and temperature data as input variables. The Mann–Kendall trend analysis is performed to identify the trend associated with drought characteristics. The basin is divided into six homogeneous regions using K-means clustering algorithm. The reliability ensemble averaging method is used for ensemble averaging of regional climate models (RCMs). The drought frequency analysis is carried out using trivariate copula for reference and future time periods. Variations in the drought characteristics are observed in the future scenarios with respect to the reference period. The drought duration, severity and peak for different climate divisions showed an increasing trend in future time period, especially in the case of RCP8.5 scenarios. The return periods of future droughts based on weighted-average RCMs under the two scenarios showed the possibility of more frequent droughts in the future (2053–2099) than in the past (1971–2017). HIGHLIGHTS The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for historical and future periods is computed.; The SPEI is used to assess drought characteristics in the Godavari River basin.; The river basin is divided into six regions using K-means clustering algorithm.; The trend analysis is carried out using historical and future drought characteristics.; Future drought return periods are computed using trivariate copula.;
format	article
author	Soumyashree Dixit Syed Tayyaba K. V. Jayakumar
author_facet	Soumyashree Dixit Syed Tayyaba K. V. Jayakumar
author_sort	Soumyashree Dixit
title	Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models
title_short	Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models
title_full	Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models
title_fullStr	Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models
title_full_unstemmed	Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models
title_sort	spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the godavari river basin using regional climate models
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ad38b0e499e1431ba66cbb755028e4c0
work_keys_str_mv	AT soumyashreedixit spatiotemporalvariationandfutureriskassessmentofprojecteddroughteventsinthegodavaririverbasinusingregionalclimatemodels AT syedtayyaba spatiotemporalvariationandfutureriskassessmentofprojecteddroughteventsinthegodavaririverbasinusingregionalclimatemodels AT kvjayakumar spatiotemporalvariationandfutureriskassessmentofprojecteddroughteventsinthegodavaririverbasinusingregionalclimatemodels
_version_	1718440775785644032

Spatio-temporal variation and future risk assessment of projected drought events in the Godavari River basin using regional climate models

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