Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia

Abstract Extreme precipitation events exhibit an increasing trend for both the frequency and magnitude on global and regional scales and it has already proven the impact of man-made global warming on the extreme precipitation amplification. Based on the observed datasets and global climate model (GC...

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Autores principales:	Shan Zou, Jilili Abuduwaili, Weili Duan, Jianli Ding, Philippe De Maeyer, Tim Van De Voorde, Long Ma
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ad5e12eb1e0945f2a7fb5deee1c553a5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ad5e12eb1e0945f2a7fb5deee1c553a52021-12-02T17:55:04ZAttribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia10.1038/s41598-021-94486-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ad5e12eb1e0945f2a7fb5deee1c553a52021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94486-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Extreme precipitation events exhibit an increasing trend for both the frequency and magnitude on global and regional scales and it has already proven the impact of man-made global warming on the extreme precipitation amplification. Based on the observed datasets and global climate model (GCM) output, this study has evaluated the impact from anthropogenic forcing on the trend and temporal non-uniformity (i.e. increase in unevenness or disparity) of the precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), extremes (R95p and RX5day) and intensity (SDII) in Central Asia (CA) from 1961 to 2005. Results indicate that radiative forcing changes, mainly driven by human activities, have significantly augmented the extreme precipitation indices in CA. The median trend with the influence of anthropogenic activities for the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day amounted to 2.19 mm/decade, 0.019 mm/decade, 1.39 mm/decade and 0.21 mm/decade during the study period, respectively. A statistically insignificant decrease in non-uniformity was noticed for the PRCPTOT, SDII and RX5day in Central CA (CCA) and Western CA (WCA), while Eastern CA (ECA) was the only region with a statistically significant increase in non-uniformity of the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day by 4.22%, 3.98%, 3.73% and 3.97%, respectively from 1961 to 2005 due to anthropogenic forcing. These results reflect the difference in various regions regarding the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in CA, which might help to fully understand the role of anthropogenic forcing in the changes of the precipitation extremes in CA and contribute to the development of water resource management strategies.Shan ZouJilili AbuduwailiWeili DuanJianli DingPhilippe De MaeyerTim Van De VoordeLong MaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shan Zou Jilili Abuduwaili Weili Duan Jianli Ding Philippe De Maeyer Tim Van De Voorde Long Ma Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia
description	Abstract Extreme precipitation events exhibit an increasing trend for both the frequency and magnitude on global and regional scales and it has already proven the impact of man-made global warming on the extreme precipitation amplification. Based on the observed datasets and global climate model (GCM) output, this study has evaluated the impact from anthropogenic forcing on the trend and temporal non-uniformity (i.e. increase in unevenness or disparity) of the precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), extremes (R95p and RX5day) and intensity (SDII) in Central Asia (CA) from 1961 to 2005. Results indicate that radiative forcing changes, mainly driven by human activities, have significantly augmented the extreme precipitation indices in CA. The median trend with the influence of anthropogenic activities for the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day amounted to 2.19 mm/decade, 0.019 mm/decade, 1.39 mm/decade and 0.21 mm/decade during the study period, respectively. A statistically insignificant decrease in non-uniformity was noticed for the PRCPTOT, SDII and RX5day in Central CA (CCA) and Western CA (WCA), while Eastern CA (ECA) was the only region with a statistically significant increase in non-uniformity of the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day by 4.22%, 3.98%, 3.73% and 3.97%, respectively from 1961 to 2005 due to anthropogenic forcing. These results reflect the difference in various regions regarding the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in CA, which might help to fully understand the role of anthropogenic forcing in the changes of the precipitation extremes in CA and contribute to the development of water resource management strategies.
format	article
author	Shan Zou Jilili Abuduwaili Weili Duan Jianli Ding Philippe De Maeyer Tim Van De Voorde Long Ma
author_facet	Shan Zou Jilili Abuduwaili Weili Duan Jianli Ding Philippe De Maeyer Tim Van De Voorde Long Ma
author_sort	Shan Zou
title	Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia
title_short	Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia
title_full	Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia
title_fullStr	Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia
title_full_unstemmed	Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia
title_sort	attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in central asia
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ad5e12eb1e0945f2a7fb5deee1c553a5
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Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia

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