Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society

Abstract Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as te...

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Autores principales:	Behrooz Ferdowsi, John D. Gartner, Kerri N. Johnson, Alan Kasprak, Kimberly L. Miller, William Nardin, Alejandra C. Ortiz, Alejandro Tejedor
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Materias:	predictions in geomorphology practicable predictions earthcasting impacts of geomorphic processes Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ade8c0745b184b8383e1b988b014bb75
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:ade8c0745b184b8383e1b988b014bb75
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ade8c0745b184b8383e1b988b014bb752021-11-23T18:30:31ZEarthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society2328-427710.1029/2021EF002088https://doaj.org/article/ade8c0745b184b8383e1b988b014bb752021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002088https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Abstract Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision‐makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.Behrooz FerdowsiJohn D. GartnerKerri N. JohnsonAlan KasprakKimberly L. MillerWilliam NardinAlejandra C. OrtizAlejandro TejedorAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articlepredictions in geomorphologypracticable predictionsearthcastingimpacts of geomorphic processesEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350EcologyQH540-549.5ENEarth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 11, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	predictions in geomorphology practicable predictions earthcasting impacts of geomorphic processes Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	predictions in geomorphology practicable predictions earthcasting impacts of geomorphic processes Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Behrooz Ferdowsi John D. Gartner Kerri N. Johnson Alan Kasprak Kimberly L. Miller William Nardin Alejandra C. Ortiz Alejandro Tejedor Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society
description	Abstract Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision‐makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.
format	article
author	Behrooz Ferdowsi John D. Gartner Kerri N. Johnson Alan Kasprak Kimberly L. Miller William Nardin Alejandra C. Ortiz Alejandro Tejedor
author_facet	Behrooz Ferdowsi John D. Gartner Kerri N. Johnson Alan Kasprak Kimberly L. Miller William Nardin Alejandra C. Ortiz Alejandro Tejedor
author_sort	Behrooz Ferdowsi
title	Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society
title_short	Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society
title_full	Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society
title_fullStr	Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society
title_full_unstemmed	Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society
title_sort	earthcasting: geomorphic forecasts for society
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ade8c0745b184b8383e1b988b014bb75
work_keys_str_mv	AT behroozferdowsi earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety AT johndgartner earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety AT kerrinjohnson earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety AT alankasprak earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety AT kimberlylmiller earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety AT williamnardin earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety AT alejandracortiz earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety AT alejandrotejedor earthcastinggeomorphicforecastsforsociety
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Earthcasting: Geomorphic Forecasts for Society

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