Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study

Bat populations in eastern North America have experienced precipitous declines following the spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and other population stressors. It is imperative to understand changes in bat populations as WNS spreads to provide appropriate guidance for species management. We develop...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Kristine O. Evans, Adam D. Smith, David Richardson
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Acoustic monitoring Bat monitoring Habitat associations Population trends Statistical power White-nose syndrome Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ae037de9f0b44418a0847c5fcfaf1b2d
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:ae037de9f0b44418a0847c5fcfaf1b2d
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ae037de9f0b44418a0847c5fcfaf1b2d2021-12-01T04:47:48ZStatistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107524https://doaj.org/article/ae037de9f0b44418a0847c5fcfaf1b2d2021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21001898https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XBat populations in eastern North America have experienced precipitous declines following the spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and other population stressors. It is imperative to understand changes in bat populations as WNS spreads to provide appropriate guidance for species management. We developed generalized linear mixed-models of population trend and habitat associations for five indicator bat species on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mobile Acoustic Bat Monitoring program routes across 86 sites in the southeastern United States from 2012 to 2017. We estimated substantial declining annual trends in relative abundance of tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus; −15.1% [−20.6 to −9.1% 95% CI]) and little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus; −13.9% [−22.9 to −3.8% 95% CI]). Relative abundance of bat species increased throughout the summer, and associated positively with the amount of woody cover along survey routes in all but P. subflavus. Fewer evening bats (Nycticeius humeralis) and eastern red bats (Lasiurus borealis) were detected along more developed routes. Using these models, we conducted a prospective power analysis to examine sampling effort necessary to detect moderate to catastrophic population changes in bat populations. We estimated that it would require 10–20 years of surveys on 50–100 routes to detect 5% annual declines in all species at 80% power and α = 0.1. Detecting a 2.73% annual decline may require >200 surveys over >20 years; whereas a 1.14% annual decline was nearly impossible to detect via our program. We demonstrate and caution that underpowered monitoring programs may misrepresent the magnitude and/or sign of population trajectories. We recommend project-specific power analysis continue to be emphasized as an important study design component for effective long-term monitoring programs.Kristine O. EvansAdam D. SmithDavid RichardsonElsevierarticleAcoustic monitoringBat monitoringHabitat associationsPopulation trendsStatistical powerWhite-nose syndromeEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 125, Iss , Pp 107524- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Acoustic monitoring Bat monitoring Habitat associations Population trends Statistical power White-nose syndrome Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Acoustic monitoring Bat monitoring Habitat associations Population trends Statistical power White-nose syndrome Ecology QH540-549.5 Kristine O. Evans Adam D. Smith David Richardson Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study
description	Bat populations in eastern North America have experienced precipitous declines following the spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and other population stressors. It is imperative to understand changes in bat populations as WNS spreads to provide appropriate guidance for species management. We developed generalized linear mixed-models of population trend and habitat associations for five indicator bat species on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mobile Acoustic Bat Monitoring program routes across 86 sites in the southeastern United States from 2012 to 2017. We estimated substantial declining annual trends in relative abundance of tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus; −15.1% [−20.6 to −9.1% 95% CI]) and little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus; −13.9% [−22.9 to −3.8% 95% CI]). Relative abundance of bat species increased throughout the summer, and associated positively with the amount of woody cover along survey routes in all but P. subflavus. Fewer evening bats (Nycticeius humeralis) and eastern red bats (Lasiurus borealis) were detected along more developed routes. Using these models, we conducted a prospective power analysis to examine sampling effort necessary to detect moderate to catastrophic population changes in bat populations. We estimated that it would require 10–20 years of surveys on 50–100 routes to detect 5% annual declines in all species at 80% power and α = 0.1. Detecting a 2.73% annual decline may require >200 surveys over >20 years; whereas a 1.14% annual decline was nearly impossible to detect via our program. We demonstrate and caution that underpowered monitoring programs may misrepresent the magnitude and/or sign of population trajectories. We recommend project-specific power analysis continue to be emphasized as an important study design component for effective long-term monitoring programs.
format	article
author	Kristine O. Evans Adam D. Smith David Richardson
author_facet	Kristine O. Evans Adam D. Smith David Richardson
author_sort	Kristine O. Evans
title	Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study
title_short	Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study
title_full	Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study
title_fullStr	Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study
title_full_unstemmed	Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study
title_sort	statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern u.s. bat species, a case study
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ae037de9f0b44418a0847c5fcfaf1b2d
work_keys_str_mv	AT kristineoevans statisticalpowerofmobileacousticmonitoringtodetectpopulationchangeinsoutheasternusbatspeciesacasestudy AT adamdsmith statisticalpowerofmobileacousticmonitoringtodetectpopulationchangeinsoutheasternusbatspeciesacasestudy AT davidrichardson statisticalpowerofmobileacousticmonitoringtodetectpopulationchangeinsoutheasternusbatspeciesacasestudy
_version_	1718405743041839104

Statistical power of mobile acoustic monitoring to detect population change in southeastern U.S. bat species, a case study

Ejemplares similares