Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model

With the rapid development of urbanization and the continuous improvement of living standards, China's domestic water consumption shows a growing trend. However, in some arid and water deficient areas, the shortage of water resources is a crucial factor affecting regional economic development a...

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Autores principales:	Zhaocai Wang, Xian Wu, Huifang Wang, Tunhua Wu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	grey model markov chain optimization algorithm state transition matrix water consumption prediction Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ae05cd005fb64566a3bd8618810d2765
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ae05cd005fb64566a3bd8618810d27652021-11-23T18:57:01ZPrediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model1606-97491607-079810.2166/ws.2021.146https://doaj.org/article/ae05cd005fb64566a3bd8618810d27652021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://ws.iwaponline.com/content/21/7/3887https://doaj.org/toc/1606-9749https://doaj.org/toc/1607-0798With the rapid development of urbanization and the continuous improvement of living standards, China's domestic water consumption shows a growing trend. However, in some arid and water deficient areas, the shortage of water resources is a crucial factor affecting regional economic development and population growth. Therefore, it is essential to reliably predict the future water consumption data of a region. Aiming at the problems of poor prediction accuracy and overfitting of non-growth series in traditional grey prediction, this paper uses residual grey model combined with Markov chain correction to predict domestic water consumption. Based on the traditional grey theory prediction, the residual grey prediction model is established. Combined with the Markov state transition matrix, the grey prediction value is modified, and the model is applied to the prediction of domestic water consumption in Shaanxi Province from 2003 to 2019. The fitting results show that the accuracy grade of the improved residual grey prediction model is “good”. This shows that the dynamic unbiased grey Markov model can eliminate the inherent error of the traditional grey GM (1,1) model, improve the prediction accuracy, have better reliability, and can provide a new method for water consumption prediction. HIGHLIGHTS The prediction model of water resources is established.; The method of combining grey model with Markov model is put forward.; The modified method has a good prediction effect and application value.;Zhaocai WangXian WuHuifang WangTunhua WuIWA Publishingarticlegrey modelmarkov chainoptimization algorithmstate transition matrixwater consumption predictionWater supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)TC401-506ENWater Supply, Vol 21, Iss 7, Pp 3887-3899 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	grey model markov chain optimization algorithm state transition matrix water consumption prediction Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
spellingShingle	grey model markov chain optimization algorithm state transition matrix water consumption prediction Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Zhaocai Wang Xian Wu Huifang Wang Tunhua Wu Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model
description	With the rapid development of urbanization and the continuous improvement of living standards, China's domestic water consumption shows a growing trend. However, in some arid and water deficient areas, the shortage of water resources is a crucial factor affecting regional economic development and population growth. Therefore, it is essential to reliably predict the future water consumption data of a region. Aiming at the problems of poor prediction accuracy and overfitting of non-growth series in traditional grey prediction, this paper uses residual grey model combined with Markov chain correction to predict domestic water consumption. Based on the traditional grey theory prediction, the residual grey prediction model is established. Combined with the Markov state transition matrix, the grey prediction value is modified, and the model is applied to the prediction of domestic water consumption in Shaanxi Province from 2003 to 2019. The fitting results show that the accuracy grade of the improved residual grey prediction model is “good”. This shows that the dynamic unbiased grey Markov model can eliminate the inherent error of the traditional grey GM (1,1) model, improve the prediction accuracy, have better reliability, and can provide a new method for water consumption prediction. HIGHLIGHTS The prediction model of water resources is established.; The method of combining grey model with Markov model is put forward.; The modified method has a good prediction effect and application value.;
format	article
author	Zhaocai Wang Xian Wu Huifang Wang Tunhua Wu
author_facet	Zhaocai Wang Xian Wu Huifang Wang Tunhua Wu
author_sort	Zhaocai Wang
title	Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model
title_short	Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model
title_full	Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model
title_fullStr	Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model
title_sort	prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and markov model
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ae05cd005fb64566a3bd8618810d2765
work_keys_str_mv	AT zhaocaiwang predictionandanalysisofdomesticwaterconsumptionbasedonoptimizedgreyandmarkovmodel AT xianwu predictionandanalysisofdomesticwaterconsumptionbasedonoptimizedgreyandmarkovmodel AT huifangwang predictionandanalysisofdomesticwaterconsumptionbasedonoptimizedgreyandmarkovmodel AT tunhuawu predictionandanalysisofdomesticwaterconsumptionbasedonoptimizedgreyandmarkovmodel
_version_	1718416173859602432

Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model

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