Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. H...

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Autores principales:	Rebecca S Rudicell, James Holland Jones, Emily E Wroblewski, Gerald H Learn, Yingying Li, Joel D Robertson, Elizabeth Greengrass, Falk Grossmann, Shadrack Kamenya, Lilian Pintea, Deus C Mjungu, Elizabeth V Lonsdorf, Anna Mosser, Clarence Lehman, D Anthony Collins, Brandon F Keele, Jane Goodall, Beatrice H Hahn, Anne E Pusey, Michael L Wilson
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2010
Materias:	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ae0f74e0eb2c40ce84c98a31915545ba
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ae0f74e0eb2c40ce84c98a31915545ba2021-11-18T06:01:35ZImpact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.1553-73661553-737410.1371/journal.ppat.1001116https://doaj.org/article/ae0f74e0eb2c40ce84c98a31915545ba2010-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/20886099/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7366https://doaj.org/toc/1553-7374Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.Rebecca S RudicellJames Holland JonesEmily E WroblewskiGerald H LearnYingying LiJoel D RobertsonElizabeth GreengrassFalk GrossmannShadrack KamenyaLilian PinteaDeus C MjunguElizabeth V LonsdorfAnna MosserClarence LehmanD Anthony CollinsBrandon F KeeleJane GoodallBeatrice H HahnAnne E PuseyMichael L WilsonPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleImmunologic diseases. AllergyRC581-607Biology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Pathogens, Vol 6, Iss 9, p e1001116 (2010)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Rebecca S Rudicell James Holland Jones Emily E Wroblewski Gerald H Learn Yingying Li Joel D Robertson Elizabeth Greengrass Falk Grossmann Shadrack Kamenya Lilian Pintea Deus C Mjungu Elizabeth V Lonsdorf Anna Mosser Clarence Lehman D Anthony Collins Brandon F Keele Jane Goodall Beatrice H Hahn Anne E Pusey Michael L Wilson Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.
description	Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.
format	article
author	Rebecca S Rudicell James Holland Jones Emily E Wroblewski Gerald H Learn Yingying Li Joel D Robertson Elizabeth Greengrass Falk Grossmann Shadrack Kamenya Lilian Pintea Deus C Mjungu Elizabeth V Lonsdorf Anna Mosser Clarence Lehman D Anthony Collins Brandon F Keele Jane Goodall Beatrice H Hahn Anne E Pusey Michael L Wilson
author_facet	Rebecca S Rudicell James Holland Jones Emily E Wroblewski Gerald H Learn Yingying Li Joel D Robertson Elizabeth Greengrass Falk Grossmann Shadrack Kamenya Lilian Pintea Deus C Mjungu Elizabeth V Lonsdorf Anna Mosser Clarence Lehman D Anthony Collins Brandon F Keele Jane Goodall Beatrice H Hahn Anne E Pusey Michael L Wilson
author_sort	Rebecca S Rudicell
title	Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.
title_short	Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.
title_full	Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.
title_fullStr	Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.
title_sort	impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2010
url	https://doaj.org/article/ae0f74e0eb2c40ce84c98a31915545ba
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Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

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