Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing

Abstract Scientists and policymakers need to compare the incidence of Covid-19 across territories or periods with various levels of testing. Benchmarking based on the increase in total cases or case fatality rates is one way of comparing the evolution of the pandemic across countries or territories...

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Autores principales:	Kenzo Asahi, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Rodrigo Wagner
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ae44556ab75644eb88502840e9f8b46c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ae44556ab75644eb88502840e9f8b46c2021-12-02T18:46:57ZBenchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing10.1038/s41598-021-94663-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ae44556ab75644eb88502840e9f8b46c2021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94663-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Scientists and policymakers need to compare the incidence of Covid-19 across territories or periods with various levels of testing. Benchmarking based on the increase in total cases or case fatality rates is one way of comparing the evolution of the pandemic across countries or territories and could inform policy decisions about strategies to control coronavirus transmission. However, comparing cases and fatality rates across regions is challenging due to heterogeneity in testing and health systems. We show two complementary ways of benchmarking across territories and in time. First, we used multivariate regressions to estimate the test-elasticity of Covid-19 case incidence. Cases grow less than proportionally with testing when assessing weekly changes or looking across states in the USA. They tend to be proportional or even more than proportional when comparing the month-to-month evolution of an average country in the pandemic. Our results were robust to various model specifications. Second, we decomposed the growth in cases into test growth and positive test ratio growth to intuitively visualize the components of case growth. We hope these results can help support evidence-based decisions by public officials and help the public discussion when comparing across territories and in time.Kenzo AsahiEduardo A. UndurragaRodrigo WagnerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Kenzo Asahi Eduardo A. Undurraga Rodrigo Wagner Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing
description	Abstract Scientists and policymakers need to compare the incidence of Covid-19 across territories or periods with various levels of testing. Benchmarking based on the increase in total cases or case fatality rates is one way of comparing the evolution of the pandemic across countries or territories and could inform policy decisions about strategies to control coronavirus transmission. However, comparing cases and fatality rates across regions is challenging due to heterogeneity in testing and health systems. We show two complementary ways of benchmarking across territories and in time. First, we used multivariate regressions to estimate the test-elasticity of Covid-19 case incidence. Cases grow less than proportionally with testing when assessing weekly changes or looking across states in the USA. They tend to be proportional or even more than proportional when comparing the month-to-month evolution of an average country in the pandemic. Our results were robust to various model specifications. Second, we decomposed the growth in cases into test growth and positive test ratio growth to intuitively visualize the components of case growth. We hope these results can help support evidence-based decisions by public officials and help the public discussion when comparing across territories and in time.
format	article
author	Kenzo Asahi Eduardo A. Undurraga Rodrigo Wagner
author_facet	Kenzo Asahi Eduardo A. Undurraga Rodrigo Wagner
author_sort	Kenzo Asahi
title	Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing
title_short	Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing
title_full	Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing
title_fullStr	Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing
title_full_unstemmed	Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing
title_sort	benchmarking the covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the usa under heterogeneous testing
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ae44556ab75644eb88502840e9f8b46c
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Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing

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