Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim

Rice stem borer abundance are largely influenced by climate. This research aims to (i) develop a population dynamic model of yellow stem borer (YSB) and (ii) to assess the model’s ability to predict abundance and population peak of YSB under climate change scenario SRES A1FI and B1. Modeling the YSB...

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Autores principales:	Syahrizal Koem, Yonny Koesmaryono, Impron Impron
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN ID
Publicado:	The Entomological Society of Indonesia 2015
Materias:	abundance, climate change DYMEX population models population peak Zoology QL1-991
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ae982d67cccc4205aed864efc86e07e5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ae982d67cccc4205aed864efc86e07e52021-12-02T01:16:35ZPemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim1829-77222089-025710.5994/jei.11.1.1https://doaj.org/article/ae982d67cccc4205aed864efc86e07e52015-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jurnal.pei-pusat.org/index.php/jei/article/view/47https://doaj.org/toc/1829-7722https://doaj.org/toc/2089-0257Rice stem borer abundance are largely influenced by climate. This research aims to (i) develop a population dynamic model of yellow stem borer (YSB) and (ii) to assess the model’s ability to predict abundance and population peak of YSB under climate change scenario SRES A1FI and B1. Modeling the YSB requires two major components: climate parameter and lower developmental threshold temperatures (To) to describe life cycle of YSB from the egg, larva, pupa, and adult stages. The research utilized DYMEX software to describe development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one to the next life stages, fecundity and reproduction of YSB. The coefficient of determination (R2) of calibration models between predictions and observations showed a strong positive correlation of 0.65. Model validation could well predict the peak population, with R2 = 0.42. The simulations showed that the trend of population peak occur at high rainfall i.e. in March to April, July to September, and November to December. The model predicted YSB population in the Sukamandi reaches 3 generations per year, while in Kuningan 2 generations per year. Simulation models under climate change scenarios SRES A1FI and B1 showed differences in the sensitivities. Trend of YSB population is increasing in the regions Kuningan and decreasing in region Sukamandi. Under changing climate, environment conditions in Kuningan become more suitable for the proliferation of YSB, allowing an increase in the number of generations per year.Syahrizal KoemYonny KoesmaryonoImpron ImpronThe Entomological Society of Indonesiaarticleabundance, climate changeDYMEXpopulation modelspopulation peakZoologyQL1-991ENIDJurnal Entomologi Indonesia, Vol 11, Iss 1 (2015)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN ID
topic	abundance, climate change DYMEX population models population peak Zoology QL1-991
spellingShingle	abundance, climate change DYMEX population models population peak Zoology QL1-991 Syahrizal Koem Yonny Koesmaryono Impron Impron Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim
description	Rice stem borer abundance are largely influenced by climate. This research aims to (i) develop a population dynamic model of yellow stem borer (YSB) and (ii) to assess the model’s ability to predict abundance and population peak of YSB under climate change scenario SRES A1FI and B1. Modeling the YSB requires two major components: climate parameter and lower developmental threshold temperatures (To) to describe life cycle of YSB from the egg, larva, pupa, and adult stages. The research utilized DYMEX software to describe development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one to the next life stages, fecundity and reproduction of YSB. The coefficient of determination (R2) of calibration models between predictions and observations showed a strong positive correlation of 0.65. Model validation could well predict the peak population, with R2 = 0.42. The simulations showed that the trend of population peak occur at high rainfall i.e. in March to April, July to September, and November to December. The model predicted YSB population in the Sukamandi reaches 3 generations per year, while in Kuningan 2 generations per year. Simulation models under climate change scenarios SRES A1FI and B1 showed differences in the sensitivities. Trend of YSB population is increasing in the regions Kuningan and decreasing in region Sukamandi. Under changing climate, environment conditions in Kuningan become more suitable for the proliferation of YSB, allowing an increase in the number of generations per year.
format	article
author	Syahrizal Koem Yonny Koesmaryono Impron Impron
author_facet	Syahrizal Koem Yonny Koesmaryono Impron Impron
author_sort	Syahrizal Koem
title	Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim
title_short	Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim
title_full	Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim
title_fullStr	Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim
title_full_unstemmed	Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim
title_sort	pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning scirpophaga incertulas (walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim
publisher	The Entomological Society of Indonesia
publishDate	2015
url	https://doaj.org/article/ae982d67cccc4205aed864efc86e07e5
work_keys_str_mv	AT syahrizalkoem pemodelanfenologipopulasipenggerekbatangpadikuningscirpophagaincertulaswalkerberbasispengaruhiklim AT yonnykoesmaryono pemodelanfenologipopulasipenggerekbatangpadikuningscirpophagaincertulaswalkerberbasispengaruhiklim AT impronimpron pemodelanfenologipopulasipenggerekbatangpadikuningscirpophagaincertulaswalkerberbasispengaruhiklim
_version_	1718403157049999360

Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim

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