Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model

Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is undergoing unprecedented changes following the implementation of efficiency measures and energy price reforms. These changes raise uncertainties about the potential trajectory of long-term electricity demand. Thus, this study uses a computable general equilibriu...

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Autores principales:	Salaheddine Soummane, Frédéric Ghersi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2022
Materias:	Electricity demand General equilibrium model Saudi Arabia Electricity market reforms Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/aedfb5200fe14f509ba5e26c5a835cb1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:aedfb5200fe14f509ba5e26c5a835cb12021-12-04T04:33:54ZProjecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model2211-467X10.1016/j.esr.2021.100787https://doaj.org/article/aedfb5200fe14f509ba5e26c5a835cb12022-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X2100170Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2211-467XElectricity demand in Saudi Arabia is undergoing unprecedented changes following the implementation of efficiency measures and energy price reforms. These changes raise uncertainties about the potential trajectory of long-term electricity demand. Thus, this study uses a computable general equilibrium model to project sectoral electricity demand in Saudi Arabia through 2030. We project that growth in total Saudi electricity demand will significantly decelerate over the coming decade compared with historical trends. In our reference scenario, this demand reaches 365.4 terawatthours (TWh) by 2030. However, our sectoral decomposition shows large disparities across sectors. Demand is projected to grow more rapidly in the industrial and services segments than in the residential sector. We also simulate four additional scenarios for domestic electricity price reforms and efficiency policies. Successfully implementing these measures may result in significant energy savings. Aligning Saudi electricity prices with the average electricity price among G20 countries can reduce total electricity demand by up to 71.6 TWh in 2030. Independently enforcing efficiency policies can reduce total electricity demand by up to 118.7 TWh. Moreover, alternative policy scenarios suggest that the macroeconomic gains from energy savings can alleviate some of the Saudi energy system's burden on public finance.Salaheddine SoummaneFrédéric GhersiElsevierarticleElectricity demandGeneral equilibrium modelSaudi ArabiaElectricity market reformsEnergy industries. Energy policy. Fuel tradeHD9502-9502.5ENEnergy Strategy Reviews, Vol 39, Iss , Pp 100787- (2022)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Electricity demand General equilibrium model Saudi Arabia Electricity market reforms Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5
spellingShingle	Electricity demand General equilibrium model Saudi Arabia Electricity market reforms Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 Salaheddine Soummane Frédéric Ghersi Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model
description	Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is undergoing unprecedented changes following the implementation of efficiency measures and energy price reforms. These changes raise uncertainties about the potential trajectory of long-term electricity demand. Thus, this study uses a computable general equilibrium model to project sectoral electricity demand in Saudi Arabia through 2030. We project that growth in total Saudi electricity demand will significantly decelerate over the coming decade compared with historical trends. In our reference scenario, this demand reaches 365.4 terawatthours (TWh) by 2030. However, our sectoral decomposition shows large disparities across sectors. Demand is projected to grow more rapidly in the industrial and services segments than in the residential sector. We also simulate four additional scenarios for domestic electricity price reforms and efficiency policies. Successfully implementing these measures may result in significant energy savings. Aligning Saudi electricity prices with the average electricity price among G20 countries can reduce total electricity demand by up to 71.6 TWh in 2030. Independently enforcing efficiency policies can reduce total electricity demand by up to 118.7 TWh. Moreover, alternative policy scenarios suggest that the macroeconomic gains from energy savings can alleviate some of the Saudi energy system's burden on public finance.
format	article
author	Salaheddine Soummane Frédéric Ghersi
author_facet	Salaheddine Soummane Frédéric Ghersi
author_sort	Salaheddine Soummane
title	Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model
title_short	Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model
title_full	Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model
title_fullStr	Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model
title_full_unstemmed	Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model
title_sort	projecting saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2022
url	https://doaj.org/article/aedfb5200fe14f509ba5e26c5a835cb1
work_keys_str_mv	AT salaheddinesoummane projectingsaudisectoralelectricitydemandin2030usingacomputablegeneralequilibriummodel AT fredericghersi projectingsaudisectoralelectricitydemandin2030usingacomputablegeneralequilibriummodel
_version_	1718372988711075840

Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model

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