Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015

In 2015, China and India's population represented approximately 35.74% of the total number of people living in the world. Due to the historical context and behavior of the most relevant indicators, this study proposes to utilize a wide variety of demographic, economic, and production indicators...

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Autores principales:	Angel Colmenares, Xu Yan, Weiguo Wang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2021
Materias:	Gross National Income (GNI) Stepwise Ridge Lasso Elastic net AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Industrial engineering. Management engineering T55.4-60.8
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/af499a19b84d4edc8c73c7f584e47404
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:af499a19b84d4edc8c73c7f584e474042021-11-10T04:24:28ZDeterminants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 20152096-232010.1016/j.jmse.2021.06.001https://doaj.org/article/af499a19b84d4edc8c73c7f584e474042021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209623202100038Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2096-2320In 2015, China and India's population represented approximately 35.74% of the total number of people living in the world. Due to the historical context and behavior of the most relevant indicators, this study proposes to utilize a wide variety of demographic, economic, and production indicators from 1952 to 2015 to assess their impact on the GNI in China and India. A comprehensive and new fangled modeling process with stepwise, regularization and distributed lag regression approaches is presented. Accordingly, theoretical results were corroborated through extensive diagnostic tests and an empirical check of the models' predictive capacity. The findings show that GNI in China is most influenced by variables such as reserves in foreign currency and the dependency ratio; whereas, variables of energy production and birth rate were generated for India. Therefore, it's the timing for China to relax the universal two-child policy. Due to the current value below the substitution rate, a gloomy outlook for China's future population and economy is predicted. Conversely, a positive outlook is forecasted for India, given the low price in the future of oil- India's primary raw material.Angel ColmenaresXu YanWeiguo WangKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.articleGross National Income (GNI)StepwiseRidgeLassoElastic netAutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)Industrial engineering. Management engineeringT55.4-60.8ENJournal of Management Science and Engineering, Vol 6, Iss 3, Pp 268-294 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Gross National Income (GNI) Stepwise Ridge Lasso Elastic net AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Industrial engineering. Management engineering T55.4-60.8
spellingShingle	Gross National Income (GNI) Stepwise Ridge Lasso Elastic net AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Industrial engineering. Management engineering T55.4-60.8 Angel Colmenares Xu Yan Weiguo Wang Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015
description	In 2015, China and India's population represented approximately 35.74% of the total number of people living in the world. Due to the historical context and behavior of the most relevant indicators, this study proposes to utilize a wide variety of demographic, economic, and production indicators from 1952 to 2015 to assess their impact on the GNI in China and India. A comprehensive and new fangled modeling process with stepwise, regularization and distributed lag regression approaches is presented. Accordingly, theoretical results were corroborated through extensive diagnostic tests and an empirical check of the models' predictive capacity. The findings show that GNI in China is most influenced by variables such as reserves in foreign currency and the dependency ratio; whereas, variables of energy production and birth rate were generated for India. Therefore, it's the timing for China to relax the universal two-child policy. Due to the current value below the substitution rate, a gloomy outlook for China's future population and economy is predicted. Conversely, a positive outlook is forecasted for India, given the low price in the future of oil- India's primary raw material.
format	article
author	Angel Colmenares Xu Yan Weiguo Wang
author_facet	Angel Colmenares Xu Yan Weiguo Wang
author_sort	Angel Colmenares
title	Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015
title_short	Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015
title_full	Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015
title_fullStr	Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015
title_full_unstemmed	Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015
title_sort	determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of china and india from 1952 to 2015
publisher	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/af499a19b84d4edc8c73c7f584e47404
work_keys_str_mv	AT angelcolmenares determinantsintheforecastofthegrossnationalincomeofchinaandindiafrom1952to2015 AT xuyan determinantsintheforecastofthegrossnationalincomeofchinaandindiafrom1952to2015 AT weiguowang determinantsintheforecastofthegrossnationalincomeofchinaandindiafrom1952to2015
_version_	1718440685444530176

Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015

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