Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies

Growing demands in arid regions have increased groundwater vulnerabilities necessitating appropriate modeling and management strategies to understand and sustain aquifer system behaviors. Sustainable management of aquifer systems, however, requires a proper understanding of groundwater dynamics and...

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Autores principales:	A. Jafarzadeh, M. Pourreza-Bilondi, A. Akbarpour, A. Khashei-Siuki, S. Samadi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	arid regions groundwater simulation multi-collinearity multi-model ensemble averaging techniques uncertainty assessment Information technology T58.5-58.64 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/af62e1451a9e4a03b902da0302afbd1d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:af62e1451a9e4a03b902da0302afbd1d2021-11-23T18:48:43ZApplication of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies1464-71411465-173410.2166/hydro.2021.058https://doaj.org/article/af62e1451a9e4a03b902da0302afbd1d2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jh.iwaponline.com/content/23/6/1271https://doaj.org/toc/1464-7141https://doaj.org/toc/1465-1734Growing demands in arid regions have increased groundwater vulnerabilities necessitating appropriate modeling and management strategies to understand and sustain aquifer system behaviors. Sustainable management of aquifer systems, however, requires a proper understanding of groundwater dynamics and accurate estimates of recharge rates which often cause error and uncertainty in simulation. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty and error associated with groundwater simulation using various multi-model ensemble averaging (MEA) techniques such as simple model averaging, weighted averaging model, multi-model super ensemble, and modified MMSE. Two numerical solutions, i.e., finite difference and finite element (FE), were first coupled under three schemes such as explicit scheme (ES), implicit scheme, and Crank-Nicolson Scheme to numerically solve groundwater simulation problems across two case studies, synthetic and real-world (the Birjand aquifer in Iran) case studies. The MEA approach was considerably successful in calibrating a complex arid aquifer in a way that honors complex geological heterogeneity and stress configurations. Specifically, the MEA techniques skillfully reduced the error and uncertainties in simulation, particularly those errors associated with water table variability and fluctuation. Furthermore, a coupled FE-ES method outperformed other approaches and generated the best groundwater-level simulation for the synthetic case study, while stand-alone FE was particularly successful for the Birjand aquifer simulation as a real-world case study. HIGHLIGHTS Multi-model ensemble averaging (MEA) techniques are employed for improving groundwater numerical simulation.; Two finite differences and finite element models developed to simulate groundwater.; Numerical models' proficiency was derived in the different complex conditions obtained.; MEA approaches show promise in enhancing groundwater flow.; Some MEA techniques having weakness in estimating numerical models’ contributions.;A. JafarzadehM. Pourreza-BilondiA. AkbarpourA. Khashei-SiukiS. SamadiIWA Publishingarticlearid regionsgroundwater simulationmulti-collinearitymulti-model ensemble averaging techniquesuncertainty assessmentInformation technologyT58.5-58.64Environmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066ENJournal of Hydroinformatics, Vol 23, Iss 6, Pp 1271-1289 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	arid regions groundwater simulation multi-collinearity multi-model ensemble averaging techniques uncertainty assessment Information technology T58.5-58.64 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
spellingShingle	arid regions groundwater simulation multi-collinearity multi-model ensemble averaging techniques uncertainty assessment Information technology T58.5-58.64 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 A. Jafarzadeh M. Pourreza-Bilondi A. Akbarpour A. Khashei-Siuki S. Samadi Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies
description	Growing demands in arid regions have increased groundwater vulnerabilities necessitating appropriate modeling and management strategies to understand and sustain aquifer system behaviors. Sustainable management of aquifer systems, however, requires a proper understanding of groundwater dynamics and accurate estimates of recharge rates which often cause error and uncertainty in simulation. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty and error associated with groundwater simulation using various multi-model ensemble averaging (MEA) techniques such as simple model averaging, weighted averaging model, multi-model super ensemble, and modified MMSE. Two numerical solutions, i.e., finite difference and finite element (FE), were first coupled under three schemes such as explicit scheme (ES), implicit scheme, and Crank-Nicolson Scheme to numerically solve groundwater simulation problems across two case studies, synthetic and real-world (the Birjand aquifer in Iran) case studies. The MEA approach was considerably successful in calibrating a complex arid aquifer in a way that honors complex geological heterogeneity and stress configurations. Specifically, the MEA techniques skillfully reduced the error and uncertainties in simulation, particularly those errors associated with water table variability and fluctuation. Furthermore, a coupled FE-ES method outperformed other approaches and generated the best groundwater-level simulation for the synthetic case study, while stand-alone FE was particularly successful for the Birjand aquifer simulation as a real-world case study. HIGHLIGHTS Multi-model ensemble averaging (MEA) techniques are employed for improving groundwater numerical simulation.; Two finite differences and finite element models developed to simulate groundwater.; Numerical models' proficiency was derived in the different complex conditions obtained.; MEA approaches show promise in enhancing groundwater flow.; Some MEA techniques having weakness in estimating numerical models’ contributions.;
format	article
author	A. Jafarzadeh M. Pourreza-Bilondi A. Akbarpour A. Khashei-Siuki S. Samadi
author_facet	A. Jafarzadeh M. Pourreza-Bilondi A. Akbarpour A. Khashei-Siuki S. Samadi
author_sort	A. Jafarzadeh
title	Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies
title_short	Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies
title_full	Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies
title_fullStr	Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies
title_full_unstemmed	Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies
title_sort	application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/af62e1451a9e4a03b902da0302afbd1d
work_keys_str_mv	AT ajafarzadeh applicationofmultimodelensembleaveragingtechniquesforgroundwatersimulationsyntheticandrealworldcasestudies AT mpourrezabilondi applicationofmultimodelensembleaveragingtechniquesforgroundwatersimulationsyntheticandrealworldcasestudies AT aakbarpour applicationofmultimodelensembleaveragingtechniquesforgroundwatersimulationsyntheticandrealworldcasestudies AT akhasheisiuki applicationofmultimodelensembleaveragingtechniquesforgroundwatersimulationsyntheticandrealworldcasestudies AT ssamadi applicationofmultimodelensembleaveragingtechniquesforgroundwatersimulationsyntheticandrealworldcasestudies
_version_	1718416174729920512

Application of multi-model ensemble averaging techniques for groundwater simulation: synthetic and real-world case studies

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