A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests

The vulnerability of species richness to several factors like, climate change, habitat fragmentation, resource exploitation, etc., poses a challenge to conservation biologists and agencies working to sustain the ecosystem services. Hence, there is a clear need for early warning indicators of species...

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Autores principales:	Hugo Fort, Tomás S. Grigera
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Early warning indicators, Species loss Ecosystem collapse Tropical forest dynamics Maximum entropy method Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/afc1a69c07b44ba79ace4cdfb9aef619
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:afc1a69c07b44ba79ace4cdfb9aef619
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:afc1a69c07b44ba79ace4cdfb9aef6192021-12-01T04:47:32ZA new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107506https://doaj.org/article/afc1a69c07b44ba79ace4cdfb9aef6192021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21001710https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XThe vulnerability of species richness to several factors like, climate change, habitat fragmentation, resource exploitation, etc., poses a challenge to conservation biologists and agencies working to sustain the ecosystem services. Hence, there is a clear need for early warning indicators of species loss generated from empirical data.The tree community of the long-term 50-hectare plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, is one of the most intensively studied in the world. This plot was established in 1981 and fully censused in 1982 then every 5 years from 1985 through 2015. This extensive dataset reveals that some tree species suffered steep population declines.Here we propose an early warning indicator of such tree population crashes and test it against the BCI dataset. The spatial covariance matrices, Cij, of the 20 most abundant tree species in BCI allow us to compute, via MaxEnt, the effective interaction matrices, Jij, among these species for the eight censuses available from 1982 to 2015. For each species i and each census c, the absolute value of the intraspecific competition coefficients Jii(c) are much larger than those of the interspecific interaction coefficients Jij(c) with i ≠ j. We show that this result can be derived from a similar empirical relationship observed for the matrices Cii(c). Our main finding is that for those tree species that suffered steep population declines (of at least 50%), across the eight tree censuses, the drop of Jii is always steeper and occurs before the drop of the corresponding species abundance Ni. Indeed, such sharp declines in Jii occur between 5 and 15 years in advance than comparable declines for Ni, and thus they serve as early warnings of impending population busts. Furthermore, this drop of Jii is linked to the anomalous variance, which is a known early warning of incoming catastrophic shifts.Hugo FortTomás S. GrigeraElsevierarticleEarly warning indicators, Species lossEcosystem collapseTropical forest dynamicsMaximum entropy methodEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 125, Iss , Pp 107506- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Early warning indicators, Species loss Ecosystem collapse Tropical forest dynamics Maximum entropy method Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Early warning indicators, Species loss Ecosystem collapse Tropical forest dynamics Maximum entropy method Ecology QH540-549.5 Hugo Fort Tomás S. Grigera A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
description	The vulnerability of species richness to several factors like, climate change, habitat fragmentation, resource exploitation, etc., poses a challenge to conservation biologists and agencies working to sustain the ecosystem services. Hence, there is a clear need for early warning indicators of species loss generated from empirical data.The tree community of the long-term 50-hectare plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, is one of the most intensively studied in the world. This plot was established in 1981 and fully censused in 1982 then every 5 years from 1985 through 2015. This extensive dataset reveals that some tree species suffered steep population declines.Here we propose an early warning indicator of such tree population crashes and test it against the BCI dataset. The spatial covariance matrices, Cij, of the 20 most abundant tree species in BCI allow us to compute, via MaxEnt, the effective interaction matrices, Jij, among these species for the eight censuses available from 1982 to 2015. For each species i and each census c, the absolute value of the intraspecific competition coefficients Jii(c) are much larger than those of the interspecific interaction coefficients Jij(c) with i ≠ j. We show that this result can be derived from a similar empirical relationship observed for the matrices Cii(c). Our main finding is that for those tree species that suffered steep population declines (of at least 50%), across the eight tree censuses, the drop of Jii is always steeper and occurs before the drop of the corresponding species abundance Ni. Indeed, such sharp declines in Jii occur between 5 and 15 years in advance than comparable declines for Ni, and thus they serve as early warnings of impending population busts. Furthermore, this drop of Jii is linked to the anomalous variance, which is a known early warning of incoming catastrophic shifts.
format	article
author	Hugo Fort Tomás S. Grigera
author_facet	Hugo Fort Tomás S. Grigera
author_sort	Hugo Fort
title	A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_short	A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_full	A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_fullStr	A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_full_unstemmed	A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_sort	new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/afc1a69c07b44ba79ace4cdfb9aef619
work_keys_str_mv	AT hugofort anewearlywarningindicatoroftreespeciescrashesfromeffectiveintraspecificinteractionsintropicalforests AT tomassgrigera anewearlywarningindicatoroftreespeciescrashesfromeffectiveintraspecificinteractionsintropicalforests AT hugofort newearlywarningindicatoroftreespeciescrashesfromeffectiveintraspecificinteractionsintropicalforests AT tomassgrigera newearlywarningindicatoroftreespeciescrashesfromeffectiveintraspecificinteractionsintropicalforests
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A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests

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