Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations
Abstract For endemic pathogens, seroprevalence mimics overall exposure and is minimally influenced by the time that recent infections take to seroconvert. Simulating spatially-explicit and stochastic outbreaks, we set out to explore how, for emerging pathogens, the mix of exponential growth in infec...
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Nature Portfolio
2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:b006dc9ed2014761b46578b734885a622021-12-02T11:36:36ZReal-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations10.1038/s41598-021-84672-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/b006dc9ed2014761b46578b734885a622021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84672-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract For endemic pathogens, seroprevalence mimics overall exposure and is minimally influenced by the time that recent infections take to seroconvert. Simulating spatially-explicit and stochastic outbreaks, we set out to explore how, for emerging pathogens, the mix of exponential growth in infection events and a constant rate for seroconversion events could lead to real-time significant differences in the total numbers of exposed versus seropositive. We find that real-time seroprevalence of an emerging pathogen can underestimate exposure depending on measurement time, epidemic doubling time, duration and natural variation in the time to seroconversion among hosts. We formalise mathematically how underestimation increases non-linearly as the host’s time to seroconversion is ever longer than the pathogen’s doubling time, and how more variable time to seroconversion among hosts results in lower underestimation. In practice, assuming that real-time seroprevalence reflects the true exposure to emerging pathogens risks overestimating measures of public health importance (e.g. infection fatality ratio) as well as the epidemic size of future waves. These results contribute to a better understanding and interpretation of real-time serological data collected during the emergence of pathogens in infection-naive host populations.Francesco PinottiUri ObolskiPaul WikramaratnaMarta GiovanettiRobert PatonPaul KlenermanCraig ThompsonSunetra GuptaJosé LourençoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021) |
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Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Francesco Pinotti Uri Obolski Paul Wikramaratna Marta Giovanetti Robert Paton Paul Klenerman Craig Thompson Sunetra Gupta José Lourenço Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations |
| description |
Abstract For endemic pathogens, seroprevalence mimics overall exposure and is minimally influenced by the time that recent infections take to seroconvert. Simulating spatially-explicit and stochastic outbreaks, we set out to explore how, for emerging pathogens, the mix of exponential growth in infection events and a constant rate for seroconversion events could lead to real-time significant differences in the total numbers of exposed versus seropositive. We find that real-time seroprevalence of an emerging pathogen can underestimate exposure depending on measurement time, epidemic doubling time, duration and natural variation in the time to seroconversion among hosts. We formalise mathematically how underestimation increases non-linearly as the host’s time to seroconversion is ever longer than the pathogen’s doubling time, and how more variable time to seroconversion among hosts results in lower underestimation. In practice, assuming that real-time seroprevalence reflects the true exposure to emerging pathogens risks overestimating measures of public health importance (e.g. infection fatality ratio) as well as the epidemic size of future waves. These results contribute to a better understanding and interpretation of real-time serological data collected during the emergence of pathogens in infection-naive host populations. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Francesco Pinotti Uri Obolski Paul Wikramaratna Marta Giovanetti Robert Paton Paul Klenerman Craig Thompson Sunetra Gupta José Lourenço |
| author_facet |
Francesco Pinotti Uri Obolski Paul Wikramaratna Marta Giovanetti Robert Paton Paul Klenerman Craig Thompson Sunetra Gupta José Lourenço |
| author_sort |
Francesco Pinotti |
| title |
Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations |
| title_short |
Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations |
| title_full |
Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations |
| title_fullStr |
Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations |
| title_sort |
real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations |
| publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/b006dc9ed2014761b46578b734885a62 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT francescopinotti realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT uriobolski realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT paulwikramaratna realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT martagiovanetti realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT robertpaton realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT paulklenerman realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT craigthompson realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT sunetragupta realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations AT joselourenco realtimeseroprevalenceandexposurelevelsofemergingpathogensininfectionnaivehostpopulations |
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